Republicans hold a significant lead among likely voters on a generic congressional ballot heading into the last week of the campaign, according to a new Gallup Poll.
Gallup's model of a high-turnout scenario — where more than 40 percent of the electorate votes — shows Republicans leading 52 percent to 43 percent. If fewer than 40 percent of voters turn out, the GOP lead jumps to 14 points, 55 percent to 41 percent.
Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport said the data show Republicans remain “in position to win control of the House of Representatives in next week's midterm elections.”
The poll shows Democrats trail Republicans by only 4 percentage points among registered voters.
“Republicans have held the upper hand all year in terms of enthusiasm and turnout, giving their candidates clear advantages among likely voters,” Newport wrote. “Democrats appear to have closed that gap a little, particularly when the last four days of Gallup's interviewing are taken into account, and are thus doing slightly better in Gallup's voting estimates.”
The data are based on two polls conducted Oct. 14-17 and Oct. 21-24. For the registered voter sample, 2,746 registered voters were surveyed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Gallup surveyed 1,989 likely voters, the sample for which comes with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
19 comments:
People with straight hair generally desire wavy hair while those with curly hair envy those with straight hair. To me, this is analogous to the political situation in which Republican support will come out stronger and more unified when there is a strong democratic president leading the country. Furthermore, anytime anything is done (or not done), people can find things to complain and censure. There is no satisfying everybody as the adage tells us. Even perhaps the swing voters ,or "nature of times voters" have changed their vote in response of the changing of times and fallen expectations. Thus, these polls may not be as indicative of the political atmosphere as they seem.
2 of the 3 articles have the Democrats in not as bad a position as some think, and only this one decidely gives the Republican the midterm advantage. This shows that polls can be deceiving and confusing, and many races are too close for such a system to determine a "winner" at this point.
The Republican party is using Obama's own campaign strategy against him: when he ran for office, Obama promised the people CHANGE from the current order. Well it seems that he, along with the Democratic party as a whole, has become the new "current order" in need of reform. So in come the Republicans with their "Tea Parties" and their Palin endorsements promising to be different than Democrats. Basically.
It says that republicans hold a significant lead over the democrats in the poll, but it's only 4%, and then it says that it could have an error of plus minus 2 percent for the registered voter sample and plus minus 3 points for the gallup survey. so i guess if you want to put the numbers to it, the republicans have a small lead over the democrats not a significant one. If the democrats were able to close the gap a little in four days, then maybe after a little while longer they will be able to completely close the gap...idk
I am super excited for the Mid-Terms this year. It has been quite a show. I am very anxious to see if any of these, clearly, crazy people win. Christine O'Donnell, Sharron Angle, Joe Miller, and Ken Buck and Co., do you hear me? Either way things are gonna get crazy. But seriously, this has really turned into something of a reality show. Who can be the most mentally insane? The prize: a Senate seat! This is not looking good for America. I sincerely hope Americans don't leave their brains at home on election day. But this poll makes me thing they will. Yikes.
P.S. to Ms. O'Donnell: Do you really believe the Constitution does not establish a separation between church and state? I know that! And I'm 17! I think you need to retake some Government classes...
haha sorry but i find polls practically pointless, everything can change in an instant...but it is good to see the race is a bit tighter
YEEEESSSS!! GO REPUBLICANS! hopefully democrats dont close that gap more because that would stink but looks pretty positive to the republicans! woot!
In my opinion it all goes back to how well liked the President is. Good Ol' Dubya was a Republican, his ratings went down and Democrats moved in. Obama's ratings are sinking daily so of course Republicans are picking up speed once again. One step at a time
Looks like the democrats better step up their game if they are planning winning seats the the H.o.R. & Senate. The demos elected a democratic president, and lately he hasn't been doing so well, so they should step in and help him out.
That's surprising that the GOP has such a promising lead over the democrats, considering that they lost heavily in the 2008 and 2006 elections. If they keep up with what they're doing, then they can finally begin to win again.
Well, at least the Republicans are responsible enough to vote, because that's what all of this seems like to me. I feel like they are often in the lead, and now that Obama's ratings are at an all time low, they are becoming more involved with everything. I don't know, maybe there's just not that much motivation for Democrats lately.
Well, at least the Republicans are responsible enough to vote, because that's what all of this seems like to me. I feel like they are often in the lead, and now that Obama's ratings are at an all time low, they are becoming more involved with everything. I don't know, maybe there's just not that much motivation for Democrats lately.
That doesn't surprise me really, because this has mainly been a republican country until George Bush, but now with Obama there will be more democrats. But if Obama messes up like George (no offense) then democrats will be at an even higher disadvantage, it just depends whom we are pointing fingers at in all actuality of the general public.
People want the chance to vote for the best candidates and right now the republicans are doing a better job of helping their candidate's ideas get the upper hand on the voting process. If the democrats want to win, they clearly should have done a better job at presenting their case. It seems like the republicans want it more.
The republicans have had the upper hand in elections throughout the year however democrats do have the chance in taking the upper hand. In this case with the demorcrats at 4 percent, I think it is likely for the demorcrats to catch up
This is not surprising. Democrats and Republicans have always battled it out. It is interesting how fast the majority changed though. But, that's politics for you.
This isn't exactly surprising since democrats haven't got much done since having power in the House of Reps. Their supporters have most likely lost faith and are thinking twice about how they are going to vote.
with more likely votes to be republican in the house of representatives will there be a shift in the way the next presidential election is. More republican votes than democratic votes.
Even though it seems as though the republicans have the upper hand i have a feeling that when it comes down to the nitty gritty that democrats will take the upper hand if not then boy are we all screwed.
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