Obama's Waterloo?

What a difference two years can make. It’s hard to believe, but in November 2008, America – or at least a sizeable chunk of it – tottered punch-drunk with love for President Barack Obama. After eight years of George W. Bush’s staccato speeches, the nation, and its left-wing press in particular, lauded Mr. Obama’s every melodious word. Meanwhile, Republicans despaired of being swept aside, possibly for several election cycles, by a tsunami of desire for hope and change.

Fast-forward to November 2010. America seems like a different planet, and Mr. Obama a different man. He has downgraded his famous slogan, “Yes we can”, to a tired-sounding “Yes we can but…” Where he once roared, he now whines. It’s the Republicans’ fault for leaving him a mess; it’s the voters’ fault for not understanding what he’s trying to do. In an attempt to shore up his plummeting popularity, he gravitates to “trendy” media, from Rolling Stone magazine to the Daily Show, paradoxically diminishing the gravitas of his leadership – and the American presidency itself – with every interview.

Meanwhile, the Tea Party Express thunders across the land, selling a different brand of change. Fueled by anger instead of hope, its campaign has galvanized not only those who didn’t vote for Mr. Obama, but those who have become disillusioned, even terrified, by what he has done to the country. The President’s big-government legislation on stimulus spending and health care convinced many Americans he is bent on turning their nation into a socialist state. His anaemic response to the Gulf Oil Spill and foreign policy challenges have others worried that he is simply not up to the job of Leader of the Free World, at home or abroad.

Mr. Obama complains about having inherited a mess from Mr. Bush. The truth is, without a mess, Mr. Obama would never have been elected. His personal story and silver tongue appealed to voters who were tired of his predecessor’s simplistic statements, ballooning deficits and war without end. As fellow presidential aspirant Hillary Clinton bitterly learned, timing is everything in politics – and Mr. Obama’s moment had come.

But timing is both friend and foe. The new President’s ambitious agenda, designed to tackle “mess number one”, ran smack into the titanic problems of “mess number two”. In 2007, the credit crisis began to devastate the American housing market, throttle its lending market, and send unemployment numbers through the roof. Once elected, Mr. Obama, a believer in state intervention, predictably turned to government – and taxpayer dollars – to try and solve the problem. The result? Today 9.6% of Americans are still unemployed and the country is facing trillion-dollar deficits for most of the next decade.

Mr. Obama is looking more and more like President Jimmy Carter, a comparison that some pundits were making even before he took office. In 1976 Mr. Carter also rose from obscurity to prominence, promising to be “A leader, for a change.” Elected in reaction to the corruption of President Richard Nixon’s administration, and propelled by a swooning press, he took office at a time of high inflation and unemployment. But the new leader failed to deliver on his message of hope. Instead, the American economy spiralled into stagflation and Mr. Carter’s agenda was overwhelmed by the Iran Hostage Crisis.

The immediate legacy of Mr. Carter’s presidency was the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980. The long-term effect, however, was the revival of the conservative movement. The Republicans are clearly hoping that the 2012 Presidential election will play out the same way – but to seize the opportunity, they first have to find the right candidate.

There is certainly no shortage of aspirants. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who ran for the 2008 Republican nomination, is criss-crossing America – flying coach, no less – to boost his party’s chances in the midterms and test the waters for a Presidential bid. Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor and 2008 Vice-Presidential candidate, has become the Tea Party’s unofficial leader and a multi-media superstar. Even the wild cards are starting to play: financier and reality TV host Donald Trump is musing about running because, “Somebody has to do something. We are losing this country.”

Time will tell if the Republicans find their next Ronald Reagan – and two years is an eternity in politics. One thing is certain: the American people are already channelling their desire for change into new vessels. Tomorrow, the Republicans will reclaim control of the House of Representatives. Whether a one-term president or not, Mr. Obama’s agenda has already been curbed by the same winds which swept him to power: timing, circumstance, and the desire for change.