Youth and '08 Election

By: Ben Adler February 10, 2008 03:28 PM EST

Amid all the hubbub over the youth vote — Time’s cover story last week was “Why Young Voters Care Again” — it is worth asking whether this year has really seen strong youth turnout. Are young people really coming out in impressive numbers in the primaries so far?

The answer depends on how easily impressed you are. By recent historical standards, youth turnout is having a banner year. In every primary or caucus so far the youth turnout percentage has been the same or — almost always — greater than it was four or eight years ago. Older voters are coming out in greater numbers, too, thanks to the competitive races in both parties.

But young people are increasing their turnout more, and as a result their share of the electorate has risen in every state. Youth turnout rose in every Super Tuesday state for which comparative data was available, except in New York, where it stayed the same. In some states, it increased dramatically over 2000 levels. In Oklahoma, it rose from 4 percent to 14 percent, and it tripled from 7 to 21 percent in Missouri. “If you look at the sheer number of young people who voted in 2000 and 2004, if you look at how much the percentages rose, [the increase is] huge,” said Chrissy Faessen, a spokesperson for Rock the Vote.

But, a cynic might note, young people still come out at a far lower rate than older voters. For example, while youth turnout may have gone way up in Oklahoma, it lags far behind voters older than 30, 33 percent of whom came out on Super Tuesday. Experts on voting behavior said this is well within historical norms.

“Young people do in every democracy turn out at lower rates than other older adults,” said Thomas Patterson, a professor of government at Harvard University and author of “The Vanishing Voter.” “Historically, that gap has been bigger in the U.S.”Patterson said that is because young people move frequently and registration deadlines vary by state. So young people are much less likely to be registered than older voters.

“The culprit has been registration laws,” he said. “In Europe, the government makes the effort to put you on voter registration roles. Here you have to make the effort.” When viewed in that light, experts such as Patterson agree, youth turnout is having a good year. But the effect is greater on the Democratic side.

So far this primary season voters younger than 30 have constituted 14 percent of the Democratic electorate. In 2004 they were 9 percent, and in 2000 they were 8 percent. Young voters have been 11 percent of Republican participants so far, which is better than the 8 percent they were in 2000 (the last time Republicans had a seriously contested primary).

Some strategists suggest that Republican campaigns put less emphasis on appealing to young voters because they are a smaller component of the primary electorate. Faessen says that campaigns in both parties recognize the increasing value of appealing to young voters, as evidenced by their holding many campus events and being active on social networking sites, such as Facebook.

But while both Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have full-time national youth vote directors, John McCain has no full-time youth-focused staff. (To be fair, McCain does not even pay for a full-time pollster, so that decision may be as much one of financial necessity as political strategy.) In the general election, where the large number of unaffiliated young voters may be up for grabs, there will likely be a greater Republican push for their votes.

For example, in Virginia, the chairman of the state Young Republican Federation, Lori-Ann Miller, was reluctant to predict strong turnout, at least not compared with Democrats, when that state votes on Tuesday. “It’s just a trend that Democrats are coming out more than Republicans,” Miller said. Miller added that many young campaign volunteers were associated with candidates who have dropped out, and their enthusiasm has since waned.

“A lot of volunteers in Virginia were [Fred] Thompson or [Rudy] Giuliani supporters,” Miller said. Miller herself is one of the disappointed former Thompson supporters.

She has not gotten involved in another campaign in the primary but plans on enthusiastically supporting the Republican ticket in November. Mike Huckabee's campaign would likely benefit from higher youth turnout in the upcoming primaries, because the former Arkansas governor's support skews young.

On the Democratic side, young voters’ increased turnout has been essential to catapulting Obama to many of his wins. The Obama campaign said it is pleased with the turnout rate among its young supporters, even if it has not equaled that of older voters.

“I like to think that we are undergoing a cultural change,” said Hans Riemer, Obama’s national youth vote director. “If this group is tripling its turnout, they’re going to be more engaged for the rest of their lives. The appropriate perspective on this is that it's progress — and we still have work to do.”