Since Last We Met.....

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the intensity of the military campaign in Libya will ease soon after allied forces imposed a no-fly zone on Muammar Qaddafi’s regime, enabling rebels to push out of their eastern Benghazi stronghold.

The fighting “should recede in the next few days,” Gates said at a press conference in Moscow today. Opposition fighters advanced on the central gateway city of Ajdabiya, which is held by loyalist troops, according to the Associated Press. Qaddafi’s army units continued to shell the western, rebel-held city of Misrata for a second day, residents said.

The conflict, which began in February in Benghazi, is the bloodiest in a series of uprisings that have spread across the Middle East this year and ousted the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia. With Qaddafi still in power and a no-fly zone called for by the United Nations Security Council now in place, military analysts have questioned what the coalition will do next.

“I’m not convinced we have much of a strategy or goals,” said Jan Techau, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Brussels and former NATO defense analyst, said by telephone. “Our own set-up and lack of a real plan is more worrying than a backlash in the Arab world, which so far isn’t happening.”

Oil Markets

Oil traded near the highest price in more than a week as the airstrikes threatened to prolong a supply disruption. Crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 64 cents to $101.69 a barrel, as of 12:30 p.m. London time, after rising as high as $102.67, amid speculation supply disruptions may be limited to Libya.

Yesterday, oil gained $1.26 to $102.33, the highest settlement since March 10. Tension in the region is adding a risk premium of $15 to $20 a barrel to Brent oil prices, according to Societe Generale SA.

Libyan rebels in Benghazi said they have created a new national oil company to replace the corporation controlled by Qaddafi. Its assets were frozen by the United Nations Security Council. Libya has the largest oil reserves of any country in Africa, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Aerial strikes enabled rebel forces to push out from their eastern stronghold of Benghazi toward Ajdabiya as the United States Africa Command indicated that an F-15E jet crashed because of technical difficulties. In Misrata, Qaddafi’s forces shelled the main electricity station, cutting off power from most parts of the city, Mohamed al-Misrati, a resident who witnessed the attack, said by satellite phone from the city.

Civilian Deaths

Dozens of people were killed and more than 150 others wounded in the ongoing attack on the city, which involved tanks shelling residential areas, al-Misrati said today. There are no reliable estimates of the number of casualties from the weeks of fighting.

On the crashed U.S. warplane, Kenneth Fidler, a spokesman for the United States Africa Command, said in a phone interview from Stuttgart, Germany that “indications are that it was not due to hostile action.” Both crew members ejected and were later rescued.

Attacks late yesterday targeted early warning radars, communication centers and surface-to-air missile sites in and around Tripoli and Misrata, aircraft hangers at the Ghardabiya airfield, and an armored convoy south of Benghazi. The coalition struck a command-and-control facility in a Qaddafi compound in Tripoli, General Carter Ham, the U.S. commander for combat operations against Libya, said yesterday.

Coalition Flights

The coalition flew between 70 and 80 sorties yesterday, with more than half conducted by non-U.S. aircraft, Ham said. France, Spain, Italy, Denmark and the U.K. enforced the no-fly zone over Benghazi and coalition vessels patrolled the coast, he said. Both Italy and France deployed aircraft carriers.

“Many civilians were killed last night because many of the targets last night were civilian and quasi-military places,” Moussa Ibrahim, a Libyan government spokesman, said in an interview with Sky News. “The British government is killing more civilians to save civilians. This is absurd.”

Ibrahim said 48 civilians were killed on the first night of the operation, on March 19.

Norway said it is keeping its fighters grounded until there is clarity on the chain of command as France, the U.K. and allies including Turkey and the Arab states struggled to agree on whether NATO should guide the operation.

“The biggest obstacle to the Libyan intervention right now isn’t the Arab world but rather differences among France, the U.K. and the U.S. about who’s in charge,” said Techau.

NATO Debate

The option of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization taking charge of military operations may hinge in part on the extent of reservations expressed by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Dialogue with the Libyan regime must continue, the premier said today in a speech to his party in parliament. Turkey has doubts over whether military intervention is justified, he said.

Turkey has assumed diplomatic functions in Libya on behalf of the U.S., U.K., Italy and Australia at their request, Foreign Ministry spokesman Selcuk Unal said today.

The Turkish embassy in Tripoli, which played a key role in negotiating the release of foreign journalists held in custody by Libyan forces, agreed to perform consular and diplomatic functions for the four nations after they closed their missions, Unal said in a telephone interview today.

Allied Forces

U.S. Vice Admiral Bill Gortney said Spain, Belgium, Denmark and Qatar have joined the coalition. The U.S., the U.K., France, Italy and Canada have at least 25 ships off the coast of Libya, including the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and the Italian carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi.

Obama and other alliance leaders, including U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, have declared that their political objective is to force Qaddafi from power after more than four decades. Ham said it is “possible” the Libyan dictator would remain in power for some time.

China today called for an immediate cease-fire in the North African country. The United Nations resolution authorizing the military action was meant to “protect the safety of civilians,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said at a briefing in Beijing today.

“The military actions taken by relevant countries are causing civilian casualties,” Jiang said. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin yesterday described the allied offensive as a “crusade.”