By John McIntyre
Barack Obama has had three previous opportunities to knock Hillary Clinton out of the race. First, in New Hampshire in early January where all the polls pointed to an Obama win; second, on Super Tuesday in early February where a win in California (where the polls were tied) would have been enough to cripple the Clinton campaign; and then most recently in Ohio and Texas in early March, where a popular vote win in either state would have been enough to effectively knock Clinton out of the race.
Senator Obama has another opportunity tomorrow in Pennsylvania - and this time he doesn't even have to win. If he simply outperforms the latest RealClearPolitics Average which has him trailing by 5.9%, that will be enough to calm nervous superdelegates while all but eliminating any hope Senator Clinton has of claiming a popular vote victory.
Senator Clinton has a much higher hurdle. With time running out and Democrats increasingly anxious to turn their fire on John McCain, a win by 2-4 points along the lines of New Hampshire and Texas will simply not get the job done. Hillary Clinton needs a double-digit win.
Clinton will undoubtedly stay in the race with a 6-9 point victory, but at that point her chances for the nomination will be reduced to hoping for an Obama scandal or major gaffe that causes Obama's campaign to implode. Not totally impossible. But, then again, not very likely either.
Where the race could get very interesting is if Clinton is able to beat Obama by double-digits. Something to keep in mind is Pennsylvania will be the first time Democratic voters, as opposed to pollsters, have had a chance to factor in some of the recent controversies surrounding Obama the last six weeks, in particular Reverend Wright and his "bitter" comments in San Francisco. A big win by Clinton may cause a reassessment of how damaging these issues might be to Obama. On the back of Senator Obama's dismal showing in the Ohio River Valley among working class whites, his performance in Pennsylvania among downscale white voters will take on heightened importance.
A Clinton victory over 10 points will allow two critical things for the Clinton campaign.
1) Given the likelihood that Obama will overwhelmingly carry black voters and young voters, a 10+ point Clinton win, will mean Obama performed terribly among blue-collar whites. This will exacerbate angst among undecided superdelegates, fully aware that the most reasonable Democratic pathways to 270 electoral votes include wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey.
2) A double-digit win keeps Clinton in position to be able to ultimately claim a victory in the popular vote. And a win in the popular vote is critical to the Clinton campaign's ultimate strategy for the nomination, as it gives superdelegates the rationale (and more importantly the cover) to buck all the emotional investment in Obama as the nominee.
Here is a quick guide to sort through the inevitable post-PA spin.
--Obama wins: Race is totally over.
--Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over.
--Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down.
--Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media.
--Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate "winner". In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee.
29 comments:
Gillian Welch
3rd
Hope Obama wins.
They're saying it's too close to call.
Uh oh.
Lindsay Huffhines
2nd
Well, Hillary is ahead right now. But according to the NY Times, Obama is supposed to pull through. This vote is vital to the race, and whoever wins may be ensuring a future in the White House. If the margin is still extremely narrow, like it is right now, there still might be a debate going on for the Democratic nominee. Crazy!
I say it stays close.
What else will be on the news?
Lindsey Lohan?
oh God, I just want it to be over already!!!!
ugghh
clinton won by about 10 points
suckiness!!!
Last I checked before bed, Clinton was up by 8, with 35% reporting. If that's any indicator, it leaves her a decent stretch behind Obama, but allows her campaign to continue moving. Ultimately, this isn't great news for the Democrats, but if either candidate finishes abnormally strong in the next few primaries, the nomination will cease to be contested.
It's a tough fight. Hillary did win, but that will only keep her in the race. Both Obama and Clinton are great leaders. Good luck!
By Liulinbo Yang(6)
Well since i already know how this ends i can't really say much. But i really think that Obama is not ready for this anyways. Hilary is most likely to make it on the ballot but right now it is still to close to tell. Pennsylvania matters a lot because it shows how the primary will most likely end up. And who will end up on top and who will end up on bottom or in this case who will still be fighting each other for the candidacy.
Sarah Lambert
Human Geography AP 4
9th grade
Abigail Ham
Well, I think I'm ok with Clinton winning. She certainly knows what she's doing.
Oh, and I commented on the Obama article, but it didn't show up. Oh well.
I stayed up late last night watching the pennsylvania primaries and learned many things. First i want to say that Clinton won by 10% but at points the race was as close as 4%. I think Obama actually did a very good job in Pennsylvania considering that he was projected to lose by 20%. He cut his losses in half which i think helps to show that Obama was appealing to other groups more than people had previously thought. As for the next two primaries im pretty sure Barack will win win them and secure his victory, especially since Clinton is getting very close to being out of money. I just want to know what margin of victory either would have to win in the next two elections to secure their candidacy.
This will be interesting for sure, im kinda hoping for a Clinton win, but Im not worried about Obama. So either way Il be fine because I believe we will still be looking at a democratic win in the long run.
Grant Curry
Human geography AP
4th period
9th Grade
It's been a crazy race so far. To me, I think Obam is getting a little overconfident. Hillary won, but things are still looking grim for her. Obama can easliy come back, but he can't get too overconfident. The people of Pennslyvania believe that Clinton is the better nominee to face McCain than Obama. But right now it's kind of hard to say.
Jiaqi Niu
HuGeo 4th
10th Grade
so my friend zane palmer (an lhs alumni)goes to UT now & is very involved in the obama campaign... he submitted an entry for the moveon.org "Obama in 30 Seconds" competition and he would like help.
Part of the judging is done online, and the top 5 ads that receive the most viewings automatically move on to the next round.
Here is a link that will take you directly to our spot so you can view and vote for it...
http://obamain30seconds.org/vote/?v=view-2263-rQdHvS
...if you could vote for him it would be awesome!... but this is a cause he whole heartedly believes in & it would be really cool to see all his passion for this campaign out there
thanks
Marisa Ybarra
2nd period
Just when we think that Hillary is done she wins again. Its just crazy they are both good candidates and we can just pick one already. Obama is still ahead, but will he stay there? I guess we're going to have to see the remaining states dukes it out, who knows there maybe a primary in Puerto Rico and a Caucus in Guam.
If Clinton were to completely over power obama it would be surprising also heartbreaking to many. She shouldn't be in the race at all but so many people see her as a new Bill Clinton they want a "refreshment" like that but it just should not be her.
Kayleigh Robertson
6th
This sucks superbad that Hilary won Penn. Let's all keep our fingers crossed!
Landon Henderson
pd.4th
grade:9th
Obama should have tooken Clinton out when he had the chance. Now he might pay the price and lose the race. That is why if I could vote i would vote for Mc. Cain
I believe it is merely only a matter of time before Clinton is "knocked out" of the race. Obama predicted that he would lose PA so there was no real surprise there. However, this raises another issue. If Obama wins the nominee, then will all of Clintons support follow under the Obama flag or just pull votes away from Obama?
hm...interesting. The race is getting close to an end for the democratic candidate. The hype seems to have died down in Texas however, the race goes on. With all this information, it looks highly unlikely yet possible for Clinton to pull through. An interesting turnout Pennslyvania will be but we need to hurry up and aim our strengths at McCain!
The Pennslvania primary has ended with Clinton gaining the win. With this her campain is going to get a surge and continue the fight. However she is still behind and needs a lot of help to get the nominee. Thou Obama can't let his guard down and make anymore mistakes, other then that the nominee should be his.
Senator Clinton did a great job in Pennsylvania; not only did her win rejuvenate her campaign, but she was able to capitalize on the celebrations to get more funding for her campaign workers.
hmm she should just give up, doing more damage to her party than help...
I feel like Puerto Rico is being left out. Does it not matter too?
well... it appears Obama is going to win doesn't it?
I don't know how I feel about that. Obama is the most liberal of the 3... which is kind of scary... but Hilary is also kind of scary, in a different way.
its about time clinton gets knocked out! i have been dissapointed those past few times and now my wish will come true! haha..i hope.
Well, here we are, after the Pennsylvania primaries have past. Entertainingly, Clinton secured a lead of roughly 9.3%, according to the numbers released by the Associated Press, leaving her right between the "status quo--game to Obama" and the "Clinton gains a chance" categories. It's as if the Pennsylvanians knew exactly how to vote in order to keep the race alive and well...
...? Ah...do you see what I see?
We obsess over the race, we trace every step, frequenting news websites and watching every action on television. The media gets a lot of nice viewing from a good, close race. THE GAME IS RIGGED. Prediction: Clinton will continue to win by small margins, just barely big enough to keep her in the race. The media is controlling votes to lengthen its own spotlight. IT'S A CONSPIRACY!!!!11oneninetyschfiftynegativepi
But of course, if the race does wind down suddenly after this post and one of the two emerges as the clear victor, my theory still holds. The media just noticed that I figured them out and decided to end this charade. In short, I am the man in charge of this election.
Yeehaw, I win. I'm like a friggin' president.
Hmm, it's getting interesting then. What I see as most likely is it falling into the 6-9 category for clinton, which will throw obama a bit in the lead. However, if that happens, you can be sure serious attempts will be made to thwart the Obama campaign, and I wouldn't be suprised if one strong enough to carry the more weak minded voters over was formed, due to the slightly revolutionary nature of this election.
We'll see, we'll see.
ahh a double digit win - she was almost there. haha I think this is a great example of how everyone matters when it comes to voting. Obama won all of the large cities, yet Clinton won the state. It was the little people who mattered.
Tara Viswanathan
2nd period
If Obama won then this democratic competition would be over, but then where is the fun in that. Since Hillary won it means that there will be more debates. Obama is probably going to win the nomination but at least Hillary is trying.
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