Monday, March 31, 2008

Should Hillary Quit?


What happened
A string of Democratic leaders is endorsing Barack Obama in an attempt to pressure Hillary Clinton to give up her bid for the party’s Democratic nomination. Many party insiders fear that the bitter campaign will make it harder to beat Republican John McCain in the November general election. (The Wall Street Journal)


Former president Bill Clinton, campaigning for his wife in California, said the tight primary race was “strengthening” the party. "We are going to win this election,” he said, “if we just chill out and let everybody have their say." (San Jose Mercury-News, free registration)


What the commentators said


There’s no reason Clinton should drop out as long as she has a shot, said Isaac Chotiner in The New Republic's The Plank blog, but she has nothing to gain “by an ugly, divisive contest.” The “conventional wisdom” says she has to destroy Obama to win, but the electoral math is against her unless a huge scandal derails her rival. So her smartest move is to “slow things down a bit” so that, if no "game-changer” emerges, she might have another shot in 2012.It is “insane” for Democratic insiders to try to shut down this battle, said Bill Press in The Huffington Post.


The Democratic Party “I knew loved a good fight,” and “believed in giving everyone a fair shot.” And this year “the party is blessed with two of the best candidates ever to run for president.” And the historic contest between “the first African-American and the first woman having a serious shot at the presidency” is inspiring voters like never before—why would one wish for this to end quickly?The Clintonites have clearly been “breathing the fumes of the campaign bus too long,” said Jay Bookman in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (free registration).


Hillary says she must keep fighting “on the grounds that the people are sovereign and must be allowed to have their say. Then, switching gears, she also argues that once the people have had their say, the superdelegates have the right to overturn the people's verdict in her favor.” That “convoluted argument” can only make sense to someone insulated from reality by the bubble of her own campaign.


There’s actually a good reason for Clinton to fight so hard, said Andrew Gumbel in the Los Angeles Times (free registration). America has a “long history of dogged, dirty, win-at-any-cost electioneering.” And it works, no matter how much party leaders claim that the “popular will” is their primary concern.Judging by the way they’re campaigning in Pennsylvania, said Robert Novak in the Chicago Sun-Times, it is beginning to dawn on Clinton and Obama that neither wins in a Democratic fight to the finish. Instead, they are offering voters “wonkish declarations, nearly identical from Obama and Clinton. Obama thinks he has the nomination won, and Clinton is not desperate enough to launch a suicidal last attack.”

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Happy Spring Break


No posts after this Saturday. Have a happy Spring Break!

Geography Students


Here is more information about the Rwandan genocide that we have been looking at in class.


The Rwandan Genocide was the systematic murder of members of Rwanda's Tutsi minority and the moderates of its Hutu majority, in 1994. This was both the bloodiest period of the Rwandan Civil War and the worst genocide of the 1990s. With the preliminary implementation of the Arusha Accords, the Tutsi rebels and Hutu regime were able to agree to a cease-fire, and further negotiations were underway. The diplomatic efforts to end the conflict were at first thought to be successful, yet even with the MRND and RPF (political wing of the RPA) in talks, certain Hutu factions, like the CDR, were against any agreement for cooperation between the regime, and the rebels, to end Rwanda's ethnic and economic troubles and progress towards a stable nationhood. The genocide was primarily the action of two extremist Hutu militias, the Interahamwe (military wing of the MRND) and the Impuzamugambi (military wing of the CDR), against dissenters to their Hutu extremism. Over the course of about 100 days, from April 6 to mid-July, at least 500,000 Tutsis, and thousands of Hutus, were the victims of this atrocity.[1] Some estimates put the death toll around the 800,000 and 1,000,000 marks.[2] In February 2008, another estimate put the number of victims above 1,074,000.[3]
With the genocide, and the resurgence in the civil war, Rwanda's conflict was thought by the United Nations to be too volatile for it to handle. Eventually, the Tutsi rebels successfully brought the country under their control and overthrew the Hutu regime. Hundreds of thousands of Hutu refugees fled across the borders, mainly west to Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo). The presence of the extreme Hutu factions on the border with Rwanda was the cause for the First and Second Congo Wars, with clashes between these groups and the RPF's RPA, now part of a coalition force, even until today.[1] Rivalry between the Hutus and Tutsis is also central to the Burundian Civil War.
The UN's neglect of the Rwandan Genocide, under comprehensive media coverage, drew severe criticism. France, Belgium, and the United States in particular, received negative attention for their complacency towards the extreme Hutu regime's oppressions. Canada, Ghana, and the Netherlands, did continue to provide a force on the ground, under the command of Roméo Dallaire of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda (UNAMIR), but this mission had little actual power without support from the UN Security Council. Despite specific demands from UNAMIR's commanders in Rwanda, before and throughout the genocide, its requests for authorization to intervene were refused, and its capacity was even reduced.


Government leaders met in secret with youth group leaders, forming and arming militias called Interahamwe (meaning "Those who stand (fight, kill) together" in Kinyarwanda and Impuzamugambi (meaning "Those who have the same (or a single) goal").[citations needed]
On January 11, 1994 Lieutenant General Roméo Dallaire (UN Force Commander in Rwanda) notified Military Advisor to the Secretary-General, Major-General Maurice Baril of four major weapons caches and plans by the Hutus for extermination of Tutsis. The telegram from Dallaire stated that an informant who was a top level Interahamwe militia trainer was in charge of demonstrations carried out a few days before. The goal of the demonstrations was to provoke an RPF battalion in Kigali into firing upon demonstrators and Belgian United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda (UNAMIR) troops into using force. Under such a scenario the Interhamwe would have an excuse to engage the Belgian troops and the RPF battalion. Several Belgians were to be killed, which would guarantee a withdrawal of the Belgian contingent. According to the informant 1,700 Interhamwe militiamen were trained in Governmental Forces camps and he was ordered to register all the Kigali Tutsis. Dallaire made immediate plans for UNAMIR troops to seize the arms caches and advised UN Headquarters of his intentions, believing these actions lay within his mission's mandate. The following day headquarters stated in another cable that the outlined actions went beyond the mandate granted to UNAMIR under Security Council Resolution 872. Instead, President Habyarimana was to be informed of possible Arusha Accords violations and the discovered concerns and report back on measures taken. The January 11 telegram later played an important role in discussion about what information was available to the United Nations prior to the genocide.[10]
The killing was well organized.[11] By the time the killing started, the militia in Rwanda was 30,000 strong — one militia member for every ten families — and organized nationwide, with representatives in every neighborhood. Some militia members were able to acquire AK-47 assault rifles by completing requisition forms. Other weapons, such as grenades, required no paperwork and were widely distributed. Many members of the Interahamwe and Impuzamugambi were armed only with machetes, but these were some of the most effective killers.[citation needed]
Rwandan Prime Minister Jean Kambanda revealed, in his testimony before the International Criminal Tribunal, that the genocide was openly discussed in cabinet meetings and that "one cabinet minister said she was personally in favor of getting rid of all Tutsi; without the Tutsi, she told ministers, all of Rwanda's problems would be over."[12] In addition to Kambanda, the genocide's organizers included Colonel Théoneste Bagosora, a retired army officer, and many top ranking government officials and members of the army, such as General Augustin Bizimungu. On the local level, the Genocide's planners included Burgomasters, or mayors, and members of the police.

Merck to Pay $650 Million In Medicaid Settlement


Feb. 8th Washington Post


Merck agreed yesterday to pay more than $650 million to settle charges that it routinely overbilled the government for its most popular medicines, the arthritis drug Vioxx and the cholesterol drug Zocor, cheating Medicaid out of millions of dollars in discounts over eight years.


Prosecutors say the drugmaker gave pills to hospitals at virtually no cost to hook poor patients on expensive medicine. When the patients left the hospital, they often continued taking the drugs, but with the government footing the higher bill.


The Merck settlement culminates an investigation that began in 2000 and is one of the first in a series of cases centering on whether drugmakers used unfair pricing practices to bilk the government. The Justice Department is looking into 630 health-care whistleblower claims.


H. Dean Steinke, a district sales manager for Merck, set off the investigation after he noticed his company was using questionable sales tactics. Steinke complained to his supervisors, who brushed him off, so he turned to federal authorities.


Steinke, a 51-year-old Michigan native, will receive about $68 million from the settlement as a whistleblower reward. He said he was prompted to go to authorities after his direct supervisor told him: "I don't care how you do it, but get the damn business," when he questioned the sales practices. "There comes a time when you just dig in your heels and say, 'You know what? They're not going to get away with it,' " Steinke said.


The agreement yesterday, one of the largest health-care fraud recoveries, also closes a related case about Merck overcharging for the antacid Pepcid. William St. John LaCorte, a doctor in New Orleans who questioned the Pepcid charges, will receive a yet-to-be-determined share of the settlement proceeds.


Merck did not admit wrongdoing. The country's third-largest drugmaker stood by its pricing strategies but wanted to resolve the disputes, executives said in a statement. Merck agreed to heightened oversight by regulators for five years as part of the deal. The company remains the focus of a separate grand jury investigation related to Vioxx marketing and is striving to execute another multibillion-dollar settlement of thousands of lawsuits filed by people who had heart attacks after taking the painkiller.


The whistleblowing case centered on Merck's giving hospitals across the country 92 percent discounts on Vioxx, an arthritis drug pulled from the market three years ago for safety concerns; Zocor, a popular cholesterol-lowering medicine that drew intense competition from rivals; and Pepcid, an antacid tablet now sold over-the-counter. Merck offered the pills at the discount under a legal loophole, known as nominal pricing, that Congress created a generation ago to give poor patients access to medicine.


Merck and industry experts had argued that the pricing strategy fell within the law and helped reduce costs for many government-funded hospitals. But prosecutors said the Whitehouse Station, N.J., drugmaker used the discounts to outflank its competition, offering massive markdowns to hospitals that agreed to put its medicines on a list of preferred drugs or to prescribe them for as many as three-quarters of eligible patients. In some cases, hospitals favored Merck's drugs over cheaper generics. This practice conflicted with the law because Merck did not offer Medicaid the same discounts, authorities said. The law requires the government be charged no more than other customers.


"The company perceived a loophole and tried to drive through that loophole," said L. Timothy Terry, who leads Nevada's Medicaid Fraud Control Unit and who played a central role in the case. "I think they were exploiting these programs."


The pricing allegations cover bills paid by federal Medicaid plans and plans for states from California to New York. Patrick Burns, a spokesman for Taxpayers Against Fraud, a nonprofit group that supports the pursuit of such cases, said the settlement calls attention to an improper business strategy that has been used by as many as a dozen other drug companies.


"It's heroin-dealer economics," he said. "Your first shot is for free, and after that it becomes more expensive . . . not to the hospital but to Medicaid, which is paying the bill."
Congress tightened the nominal pricing loophole at issue in the Merck case, but prescription drug costs continue to rise steadily, a major issue for presidential candidates jockeying to present health-care reform plans. Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, such key lawmakers as Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) and Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.) are pressing government administrators for better oversight of drug spending.


But, as the Merck investigation underscores, the road to financial recovery for the government and for the whistleblower is not always clear, or direct.


The Merck case had been quietly proceeding under court seal since December 2000, after Steinke came forward in Michigan. He initially worried that Merck's sales campaigns ran afoul of laws that prohibit kickbacks to doctors and hospitals. Over time, the case expanded into a deeper examination of whether Merck had complied with rules requiring manufacturers to offer federal and state agencies their "best price" on drugs.


Steinke took his case to Steven H. Cohen, of Chicago, and Mark Allen Kleiman of Santa Monica, Calif., lawyers who regularly handle whistleblower cases. Together, they filed a lawsuit and waited to see whether federal prosecutors in Philadelphia would intervene, which would have strengthened their case and potentially offered a big financial reward under the False Claims Act. More than three years passed with no clear word from government officials in Philadelphia or Washington about the Justice Department's interest in the case. Then Cohen and Kleiman learned that personnel changes in the U.S. attorney's office meant they needed to introduce new officials to the complex issues and the 10,000 pages of documents Steinke had compiled.
Sitting down with a new, skeptical lead prosecutor in 2004 marked a low point, the lawyers recalled. The allegations were too complicated, the prosecutor said, and the case was too difficult to prove. The lawyers reluctantly agreed with her.


"It was gut-wrenching," said Kleiman, a former health-care executive who attended law school after his own negative experience with corporate corruption.


"This will be called the worst day in our life," added Cohen, a former congressional staff member and the son-in-law of retired D.C. federal appeals court judge Abner Mikva.


Their mood lifted weeks later, when they bumped into a Nevada health-care official at a conference and he invited them to discuss their case. Steinke and the lawyers traveled to Carson City, Nev., where Deputy Attorney General Tim Terry told them he was interested. "Tim was a real advocate for us, immediately," Steinke said. By then he had left Merck and joined another pharmaceutical company. Eventually, he got out of the business.


Steinke's thick brown hair turned gray as he spent weeks of vacation time sitting in conference rooms in Philadelphia and Carson City, poring over 440 boxes of documents to help prosecutors make sense of the scheme. To decompress, he built a wooden deck in his backyard. The construction project consumed seven years.


Steinke, who has an undergraduate degree in fisheries and wildlife biology, said he has not drafted a blueprint for his future. He has a notion, though, to start a rehabilitation center for wounded animals with some of his settlement proceeds. For him, he said, the issue was not one of money but of principle.


"Sometimes you just get so frustrated about things that are wrong," he said. "These are the things that drive you, and you're not going to stop until things are resolved."

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Clinbama or Obamaton?



What happened:
Hillary Clinton said a Democratic presidential ticket that included both her and Barack Obama “may, you know, be where this is headed,” and suggested that she would make the better candidate for the top of that ticket. Obama was cooler to the idea of a “Dream Ticket,” saying “it is premature to talk about a joint ticket . . . right now.” (ABC News)

What the commentators said before Tuesday’s primaries, the chances of a joint ticket were “somewhere between slim and none,” said Bonnie Erbe in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, but the idea looks more likely on the “morning after.” Clinton should get preference for top billing “on the basis of age," but “a reasonable price” for this concession would be to give Obama “responsibility for some major issue” and the chance to succeed her after just one term. If they can put aside “the massive issue of egos,” a Clinton-Obama ticket “could be unstoppable.” If they can’t, “there is the real possibility” that “neither one wins.”

A Clinton-Obama ticket would never fly, said Allahpundit in Hot Air. Clinton would loathe being “outshone by a vice president with ten times the appeal she has,” and Obama would never agree to “languish for eight years in a do-nothing job Hillary will only use to try to isolate him.” Besides, Obama is well positioned to be the “presumptive nominee next time” without being VP, and he’d be better off “taking the edge off that inexperience rap” by accomplishing things in the Senate.

Clinton doesn't really expect top billing—she's angling for the VP spot, said Justin Gardner at Donklephant. She knows she “can’t win this thing outright,” but she can force Obama to make her his running mate by threatening to keep bloodying him up with “her ‘kitchen sink’ strategy.” This gambit “makes even more sense” when you consider that as No. 2, Clinton can still “ride the Obama wave into the White House” the next time there’s an opening.

Obama has to accept “that Clinton has earned something” with her “millions of votes,” said Marc Ambinder in The Atlantic’s Current blog. And by adding her to his ticket, Obama would unite “both durable, distinct factions of the Democratic party” and run “full throttle” over John McCain. Obama knows he’s not “an executive,” but “Vice President Clinton” could be his de facto “prime minister, tending to Congress and health care reform and trade agreements” while he “travels and inspires and thinks.” Everyone wins, except maybe McCain.

SNL and Politics

How can you not love SNL's take on the currect political landscape!

It's 3 a.m.

This is the Clinton ad that has been discussed in some of the posts.
First, do you think the ad is an effective one and second, do you think it does it's job?




The Real Threat to McCain




By Alan I. Abramowitz


A lot of Republicans are unhappy with their party this year. Some conservative Republicans, following the earlier lead of talk show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, have been threatening to sit out the November election or vote for a third party candidate because they don't consider their party's presidential nominee, John McCain, to be sufficiently conservative.


Since emerging as the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination on Super Tuesday, Mr. McCain has been working hard to win the support of conservatives by stressing his hawkish views on Iraq and his conservative positions on social issues such as abortion. In a further effort to ease the concerns of conservatives, McCain recently promised to oppose any tax increases during his term as president.


But a careful examination of the evidence from the 2006 midterm elections as well as voting patterns in recent primaries indicates that it isn't conservatives who pose the biggest threat to Republican unity in the fall. It's moderate-to-liberal Republicans who represent the biggest challenge to John McCain in uniting his party against the Democratic nominee, especially if that nominee is Barack Obama.


While conservatives may continue to complain about McCain, they will almost certainly end up voting for him against a much more liberal Democrat. But a large number of moderate-to-liberal Republicans could actually defect to the Democratic nominee if they perceive McCain as moving too far to the right in his effort to appease party conservatives.


In the 2006 midterm elections, defections by moderate-to-liberal Republicans contributed to the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives and were largely responsible for Republican defeats in three major Senate races in states that had voted for George Bush by wide margins in 2004: Missouri, Montana and Virginia.


According to national exit poll data, 14 percent of moderate-to-liberal Republicans in districts with competitive House races voted for Democratic candidates. This was more than four times the three percent defection rate among conservative Republicans in these districts. And defections by moderate-to-liberal Republicans played a crucial role in narrow Democratic victories in those key contests (MO, MT and VA) that enabled Democrats to seize control of the Senate in 2007. According to the exit polls in these states, the defection rate among moderate-to-liberal Republicans was13 percent in Virginia, 16 percent in Missouri and 17 percent in Montana. In contrast, the defection rate among conservative Republicans was only 3 percent in Virginia, 2 percent in Missouri and 7 percent in Montana.


The reason that moderate-to-liberal Republicans defected to the Democrats at such a higher rate than conservative Republicans was that they were much more dissatisfied with the performance of President Bush in general and with the war in Iraq in particular. According to the 2006 national exit poll, 25 percent of moderate-to-liberal Republicans disapproved of President Bush's job performance and 31 percent disapproved of the war in Iraq. In contrast, only nine percent of conservative Republicans disapproved of Mr. Bush's job performance and only 13 percent disapproved of the war in Iraq.


These results suggest that John McCain's efforts to woo GOP conservatives by stressing his support for the war and his determination to continue President Bush's policies if he is elected are likely to cost him support among moderate-to-liberal Republicans in November. Further evidence of this danger to Mr. McCain can be seen in turnout patterns in some recent presidential primaries.


Turnout in the Democratic presidential primaries this year has greatly exceeded turnout in Republican presidential primaries. Moreover, evidence from exit polls indicates that in states with open primary laws that make it easy for voters to cross party lines, a good many Republicans have been casting ballots in Democratic primaries. Evidence of this can be seen in two states with open primary laws that held their presidential primaries in February: Virginia and Wisconsin.


Based on the overall turnout in the Democratic and Republican primaries in these states and estimates from the exit polls of the size of the crossover vote in each party's primary, we can calculate that about 16 percent of Republican voters in Virginia and 25 percent of Republican voters in Wisconsin cast their ballots in the Democratic primary. In contrast, only 2 percent of Democratic voters in Virginia and 3 percent of Democratic voters in Wisconsin cast their ballots in the Republican primary.


Both Virginia and Wisconsin are likely to be battleground states in the November election. The fact that one seventh of Republican voters in Virginia and one fourth of Republican voters in Wisconsin chose to participate in the Democratic primary should be a clear warning signal to the McCain campaign, especially if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee. According to the exit polls, 72 percent of Republicans who voted in these Democratic primaries cast their ballots for Obama. Obama's ability to lure large numbers Republican crossover voters in these Democratic primaries indicates that there could be a high rate of defection to Obama among moderate-to-liberal Republicans in the November election, especially if John McCain continues to focus on shoring up his support among GOP conservatives.

10 Reason Why Obama Slipped


Published in the Progressive


As it became clear that Hillary Clinton was gaining ground on Obama, especially in the last week, his usually flawless campaign made several blunders. Here, in order of importance, are ten reasons why Obama slipped.


1. NAFTA Flap


When Obama’s leading economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, met with a Canadian official and allegedly told him that Obama’s stated views on NAFTA during the campaign amounted to “political posturing,” this was a huge blunder. It undercut Obama’s attack on Clinton for NAFTA, where she was vulnerable, especially in Ohio. It raised serious issues about Obama’s credibility with the American public, which is just getting to know him. (Especially since Obama first denied that the comment was ever made.) And the NAFTA flap called into question his leadership abilities. As I’ve been saying for days, and as Paul Begala said Tuesday night on CNN, as soon as this story surfaced, Obama should have said that Goolsbee was not speaking for the campaign and should have given Goolsbee the heave-ho. Instead, the Goolsbee comment keeps stinging him.


2. Rezko


It certainly didn’t help the Obama campaign that Tony Rezko’s trial began on Monday. The Rezko story has been lying around like a pulled hand grenade next to Obama’s headquarters for months now. Rezko is the Chicago wheeler-dealer who stands accused of money laundering and extorting bribes. He’s a longtime friend, funder, and supporter of Obama’s. And he helped Obama buy his house in Chicago. The Rezko ties, which the media finally began digging into, cast a shadow not only on Obama’s judgment but on his claim to want to clean up government.


3. A Blunder in the Last Debate


The Clinton camp wisely picked up on an Obama error in the Cleveland debate. Clinton had criticized him for never holding an oversight hearing on NATO’s role in Pakistan, even though he chairs a subcommittee on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that deals with NATO. All Obama could say to that was, “I became chairman of this committee at the beginning of this campaign, at the beginning of 2007. So it is true that we haven’t had oversight hearings on Afghanistan.” He all but admitted he shirked his duties to run for President! Clinton used this footage of Obama’s answer in an effective ad against him in the final week.


4. The Red Phone Ad


Negative advertising often works. That’s why we see it so much. And the “red phone” ad, I’m betting, did a lot to sow doubts in voters’ minds. Clinton almost split the male vote in Ohio and Texas, which is a huge switch for her. This ad helped position her as the “tough” candidate.


5. No Effective Counterpunch to Clinton’s “Fighter” Image


In the last debate, and in her speeches in the final week, Clinton stressed that she was a fighter not only for herself but for people in need. This resonated with the public, who admire her if for no other reason than she’s taken a lot of hits but keeps coming out of her corner with her head high. And this image contrasts well with Obama in two ways: First, it suggests that he’s all talk and no action. And second, it hints that his cool, low-key demeanor may not be steely enough either to take on McCain or to represent the country.


6. A Weak Economic Message


With the economy sliding deeper and deeper downward, Obama needs to strengthen his economic message. Throughout the campaign, Clinton has been beating him on the urgent issue of home foreclosures (calling for a moratorium, and a freeze on interest rates). He’s been slow to respond.


7. Too much time in Ohio


In the two weeks after the Wisconsin primary, Obama spent an inordinate amount of time in Ohio when all he needed to do, as Bill Clinton himself recognized, was to win either Texas or Ohio. As it became clearer that Ohio was going to be the tougher nut, Obama should have concentrated more of his time in Texas.


8. An Improvident Trip to Rhode Island


For some ridiculous reason, Obama went to Rhode Island on Saturday to campaign. By all accounts, he was always going to lose Rhode Island. And he needed that day—just three days before the primaries—to round up more Texas voters.


9. Failure to Bring Bill Richardson and John Edwards on Board


On Sunday on “Face the Nation,” Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico was one breath away from endorsing Barack Obama. Had Obama grabbed his endorsement (even in exchange for serious V.P. consideration, which Richardson was salivating about), Richardson could have done Obama a world of good with Latino voters in Texas. Similarly, Obama has been unable to seal the deal with John Edwards, who seemed such a natural fit with Obama during the debates. Obama needed to get Edwards’s endorsement for help among working class white voters. And it would have been of enormous help in Ohio.


10. SNL, Jon Stewart, Letterman


“Saturday Night Live” helped Clinton out two weeks in a row by showing the media as biased in favor of a hapless Obama. And Clinton made a conscious effort to inject some warmth into her personality by appearing on the show last Saturday, and by appearing on Jon Stewart Monday night. She also has done herself well by being cozy with David Letterman.

McCain Seizes the Republican Nomination


John McCain capped one of the most remarkable political comebacks in American history by seizing the Republican nomination Tuesday. With decisive victories in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, McCain surged past the needed 1,191 delegates to win the GOP nod.


Mike Huckabee, the last remaining obstacle in McCain’s path, withdrew from the race and offered his support to McCain. Minutes later, McCain took the stage along with his wife, Cindy, to thank voters from the four states and claimed the prize he was denied eight years ago by President George W. Bush.

“And I am very, very grateful and pleased to note that tonight, my friends, we have won enough delegates to claim with confidence, humility and a great sense of responsibility that I will be the Republican nominee,” McCain said Tuesday to loud applause from supporters.


On Wednesday, McCain begins the process of taking over the party apparatus from the man he lost to in 2000. He’ll meet in the White House with Bush and then head over to the Republican National Committee to meet with Chairman Mike Duncan and top officials there.


The symbolic meetings are meant to convey a passing of the torch and to underscore McCain’s role as the party’s standard bearer. It is a role few saw McCain fulfilling when his campaign crashed last summer. Broke, reduced to only a handful of loyal aides and plummeting in the polls, McCain hung tough and pinned his longshot hopes on a New Hampshire victory and the GOP electorate’s reluctance to embrace any of his rivals. Which is exactly what happened.


McCain noted his improbable success tonight, calling it “an accomplishment that once seemed to more than a few doubters unlikely.” And when Mitt Romney withdrew from the race on February 7th, it became nearly inevitable that McCain would win his party’s nomination.

After Huckabee called him to concede Tuesday, it became official. "My commitment to him and the party is to do everything possible to unite our party, but more important to unite our country so that we can be the best we can be,” Huckabee told his supporters in nearby Irving after placing the call to McCain. McCain returned the favor by calling Huckabee his friend and “a great and fine and decent American.”


In his speech, McCain previewed his coming general election themes – reiterating that he would make the war central to the debate. “I will defend the decision to destroy Saddam Hussein's regime,” McCain said to applause from the Republican crowd, before adding a reminder for the broader audience at home, “as I criticized the failed tactics that were employed for too long to establish the conditions that will allow us to leave that country with our country's interests secure and our honor intact.”


He also suggested he would hew to the traditional GOP line of attack by labeling the candidate who emerges as his Democratic opponent as insufficiently devoted to free enterprise and overly wedded to government solutions. “I will leave it to my opponents to claim that they can keep companies and jobs from going overseas by making it harder for them to do business here at home,” McCain said, promising “lower taxes and less regulation.” “I will leave it to my opponent to propose returning to the failed, big government mandates of the sixties and seventies to address problems such as the lack of health care insurance for some Americans,” he said, promising health care reforms and cost control measures that don’t endanger the current system.


Despite the elation of the moment, McCain and the GOP face a difficult task. Retaining the White House for three consecutive terms is no easy feat. And with an unpopular Republican incumbent, deep concerns about an uncertain war, a shaky economy and a better-funded and more-energized Democratic party, it will be that much more challenging for the Republicans to win this fall.


“The party obviously has to regain its brand on fiscal responsibility,” said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), a up-and-coming young conservative present at the McCain party Tuesday. But he said McCain, with his hawkish spending credentials and cross-over appeal, was well-positioned at a time when the party is imperiled and in need of a makeover.


And Republicans have something else going for them – a hard-fought Democratic race that apparently will continue past Tuesday. “I never thought I would root for Hillary Clinton, but it’s going to be fun watching this thing go on for a while,” said Hensarling with a smile.

Dems Can't Make Up Their Minds


By Gary Andres
My two younger kids love to watch the NBC television game show "Deal or No Deal." Contestants pick a suitcase that could include up to $1 million in cash. And then, guided by host Howie Mandel, they sweat out a series of decisions between accepting a known offer of money to buy their suitcase (for less than a million) or playing on in hopes of winning the big prize.


It's a nerve-wracking process, and the players express wild swings in emotions including fear, greed, doubt, joy and anguish. In the end, some are ecstatic winners and others disappointed losers -- and the calculus of choice is often agonizing and exhausting. It kind of reminds me of the Democratic primary process.


Over the past week, Barack Obama's inevitability has appeared less certain, his political mortality more evident than ever. How the process will end remains unclear, but there is a growing sense among Democrats that choosing Mr. Obama is not a risk-free exercise. Is he the suitcase with the million-dollar jackpot or a risky political bust?


Several factors contribute to a growing sense of anxiety about the Obama drama. First, how does he handle big political stumbles? The answer: like a minor leaguer. In the Ohio debate, he raised eyebrows by saying he would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, a blatant attempt to pander to Ohio voters of the protectionist persuasion.


Afterwards, one of his advisers tried to calm nervous Canadian officials, telling them Mr. Obama wasn't serious and that the statements were more political talk than serious policy. The sordid episode makes the Illinois senator look either amateurish or duplicitous -- or both.


This week's heightened press scrutiny on several issues, like the trade matter, made the Illinois senator's cool approach to difficult questions look clumsy for the first time. At a minimum, it lowers "Saint Obama" a few notches off his heavenly perch. How to define victory is also beginning to raise doubts among Democratic voters. As Jay Cost accurately points on his HorseRaceBlog at RealClearPolitics.com, while Mr. Obama likely will maintain his lead among pledged delegates due to the proportional nature of the selection process, wins for Sen. Hillary Clinton in big states like Texas and Ohio continue to close the popular vote gap. As Mr. Cost argues, if you add in the disputed Michigan and Florida results (both states were stripped of delegates due to holding their primaries early), it wipes out most of Mr. Obama's lead in the popular vote.


If Mrs. Clinton does well in the remaining primary states, she could conceivably come out on top in the popular vote, while still lagging behind in pledged delegates. As Mr. Cost observes, that could represent a compelling argument to superdelegates and might tip the balance in her favor.
Mrs. Clinton's performance among key Democratic constituencies also raises doubts about the Obama candidacy. She reasserted her strong showing among lower-income whites, union members, seniors and the all-important Hispanic vote, according to exit polls.


Other surveys demonstrate another ominous finding: There are more Democrats willing to vote for Mr. McCain than Republicans crossing over to support Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton. If Mr. Obama were to capture the nomination, disappointment among Hispanics and lower-income whites could provide a big plus for Mr. McCain in the general election.


Finally, Democrats express other worries about how Obama matches up against Mr. McCain in the general election. The efficacy of Mrs. Clinton's "3 a.m." national security ad suggests Democrats sense Mr. Obama's vulnerability on the key issue of keeping America safe. Mr. McCain could easily capitalize on those concerns. Moreover, Mr. Obama faces ongoing risk in the gap between his rhetoric and his record. When it comes to bipartisan talk versus bipartisan action, the contrasts between Mr. Obama's talk without action and Mr. McCain's record on issues -- ranging from immigration to judges to environmental policy, to name a few -- could produce some devastating results.


Until Tuesday, it looked like Democrats had reached a collective decision, but that now appears in doubt. Do they take the risk, choose the unknown and possibly win the big prize? Or, do they go back to the original frontrunner, who carries her own set of risks and baggage? Or, do Democrats choose another solution -- one that several pundits and superdelegates now suggest more openly: Why not a Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton ticket?


The only thing missing is a deal about who gets top billing. Maybe Democrats need Howie Mandel, not Howard Dean.