Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Gobble Gobble


Things I'm thankful for:
My family
My friends
My God
Air conditioning
Sun screen
My Students
Google
Satellite Radio
Poker
Texas Tech
History
Sunglasses
Being born in Texas
Travel
Cable TV
Banned Books
Winter
Clean Water
Humor
Boston Terriers
Diet Dr. Pepper
Babysitters
Magic
Chips and Salsa
Mike Leach
Haiku
Fender Guitars
Txt Msgng
The Constitution
and
No posts this week!
Gobble Gobble


Thursday, November 20, 2008

Making Kids Cry




Priceless.....


Wreck 'Em

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Is Resistance to Bailout Futile? Prepare to Be Assimilated!


There used to be an inside joke at General Motors, a twist on biologist E.O. Wilson’s finding that ants are individually stupid but collectively brilliant. GM—whose CEO, Rick Wagoner, went before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday to plead for a financial aid package—managed to create a system that produces the opposite: individually brilliant people who are collectively stupid.

I should know. I was an economist at GM for nine years, working alongside brilliant forecasters, designers, engineers, and managers. No one could tell us anything we hadn’t already figured out months earlier. Or at least that is what we told each other inside GM.

Today it is clear that the joke was on us, and not just on the brilliant people at GM but rather on all the brilliant people in the Detroit auto industry. We weren’t as brilliant as we thought we were after all.

Chrysler’s smart execs are about to be paid retention bonuses under Daimler’s “getten outten der Detroitmistaken und schnell” plan.

The auto industry is the most analyzed industry in history. Economists and analysts inside the automakers, on Wall Street, in consulting firms and universities all follow the business. With all of those smart people, it seemed rational to expect a rational approach to the auto market. That hope, however, has been dashed by events over the last several years.

That’s why I am convinced that a bailout without conditions would be tragic for the Detroit “Big 3” and for America. Leaving the same smart people in charge would lead to more of the same dumb decisions years into the future.

Of course, insiders have don’t have a monopoly on dumb decisions about Detroit.

Chrysler’s smart execs are about to be paid retention bonuses under Daimler’s “getten outten der Detroitmistaken und schnell” plan that convinced the smart people who run a private fund named after the dog standing guard at the gates of Hades to invest $6.1 billion in Chrysler and pay Daimler $1.4 billion for 80 percent of what Daimler now says is worth “nil, zero, NOSINK!” Not to be outdone in collective dumbness, the smart people at Daimler had paid $36 billion for Chrysler in 1998.

If it weren’t so tragic, it would be hard to keep from laughing out loud. And it gets harder. A few months ago my brilliant former colleagues at GM took a look at their cross-town rival and decided (collectively, no doubt) that it was the perfect time to “absorb” Chrysler. I can’t decide which is a worse fate for Chrysler: to be the blind seeing-eye dog doomed to eternally lead the blind former guard dog around and around inside the circles of Hades or to be absorbed into GM’s individually brilliant but collectively dumb Borg.

Since my years at GM—I left in 1998 and joined the University of Michigan in 2005 after a stint at J.D. Power and Associates—I’ve begun to refer to myself as “The Extramundane Economist.” The obscure word “extramundane,” known to some practicing Catholics and all Latin scholars (I am neither), means [fr. late L. extramundan-us] “situated in or relating to a region beyond the material world; fig. out of this world,” according to Obscure Words, by Michael A. Fischer.

I chose this title to indicate my view of the auto industry as an unreal bizzaro world where down is up, gain is loss, and dumb is smart. I am the first auto economist to admit this; hence, I am The Extramundane Economist, at least for now. I nurture the hope that others will join me someday.

What conditions should a bailout have? For starters, fire the individually brilliant people who ignored their customers for years while telling the government “we only make what they want and they won’t pay for fuel economy.” Then, impose oversight similar to what Chrysler had in the 1980s.

Finally, get out of the SUV loophole, which even the hometown media in Automotive News called the golden goose that became the goose egg. With gasoline slipping toward $2 per gallon, commitment to what the industry touted as “nothing less than the re-invention of the automobile” (or in English “copying the Japanese”) seems to be slipping. Ford has restarted large pickup production. Even Toyota, which apparently has been “copying the Americans” for too long, is restarting truck production.

Bankruptcy would be better than a bailout without conditions.

Job losses would not be close to being as large as is claimed by the industry’s hired guns at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR). Among job losers if Detroit actually has to restructure and become profitable and productive, they’re counting the wait staff at the Waffle House in Gainesville, Florida under the assumptions that Americans will stop driving, stop vacationing in Fort Myers, and stop stopping for waffles in Gainesville on the way.

And some jobs should be lost: the so-called JOBS Bank required under collective bargaining agreements mean that Detroit has to keep paying workers displaced by technology. They report to “work” and spend the day doing nothing: no card games, no chess games, no reading. The detainees in Guantanamo are more productive.

Bailout or bankruptcy? I’ll take either one, as long as the Borg is defeated, all dogs escape Hades, and workers are released from a fate worse than Gitmo.

Walter McManus is head of Automotive Analysis at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. Prior to UMTRI, Dr. McManus forecast vehicle sales and conducted research on new automotive technologies at General Motors

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Gun Fears and Obama


By Joshua Hull AVALANCHE-JOURNAL

The caller on the other end of the line Tuesday at Sharpshooters Gun and Knife store in Lubbock, was asking about a Romanian AK, which, like many other assault rifles, has become a hot commodity in the gun industry since Nov. 4.

The store is fresh out.

So what is it that has gun enthusiasts packing a gun store to the brim on a Tuesday afternoon?

"People were afraid of what Clinton was going to do," said store owner Charles Blackwell. "They're a lot more afraid of Barack Obama."

In the shadow of restrictions passed on assault rifles and other gun purchases passed in 1994, concerned buyers are coming out in force to purchase weapons and accessories they believe may no longer be readily available after President-elect Obama takes office in January.

Allen Butler, who was leaving the store after having work done on his AR-15 rifle, said any more restrictions put on the owners of such weapons would only serve to restrict the freedoms guaranteed by the Second Amendment.

"It's just going to take away from the enjoyment of owning them," Butler said. "I'd just like to see them leave it alone."

And he's not the only one.

According the National Rifle Association's Web site, gun owners across the nation fear changes in the Democratic administration will interfere with the ability of gun owners to legally use or purchase some weapons and ammunition.

One congresswoman listed on the site as being a danger to gun rights is Rep. Carolyn McCarty, D-N.Y., who advocates reviving the assault weapon ban which expired during the Bush administration in 2004.

Obama's official Web site also states the president-elect favors cracking down on ways in which guns can fall into the hands of children and criminals. It also suggests making the assault weapon ban permanent.

Alice Tripp, legislative director for the Texas State Rifle Association, said her office has received a flood of calls from concerned gun owners who don't want to see changes in the laws, especially in Texas.

"People don't like the idea of having something taken away from them," Tripp said. "That's why (assault rifles) are in such high demand."

While legislation passed at the federal level has wide-ranging effects on gun issues, Tripp said her organization works to ensure state laws don't become more restrictive than those coming from Washington.

"I expect to see more gun control legislation filed this time because the anti-gun people will be energized," she said. "As to whether the climate is such that they will pass, I wouldn't expect it."

In addition to the concerned calls, Tripp said there has been such a flood of requests for concealed and carry licenses that the state can't keep up.

"There are lots of things that the everyday, law-abiding citizens feel is an infringement on their rights," she said. "If there isn't a problem, and it's just feel-good-gun-control administration, and it only affects you and me, that won't be tolerated."

Though he said the rush on assault weapons this year has been far worse than when President Clinton was elected in 1992, Blackwell hopes Congress will have more important issues to deal with when Obama takes office.

"There's a lot bigger problems out there than people having 30-round clips as opposed to 10-round clips," he said. "The labeling of a gun as evil or assault because it's black and semi-automatic is not accurate."

And as he said that he's been working 12 to 15 hour days to keep up with the new demand, Blackwell said he believes one thing is for sure:

"Guns are going to be the hot Christmas item this year."

Messin' With Texas!


When President George W. Bush turns the Oval Office over to Barack Obama, he might as well dump the Lone Star of Texas into the bed of his pickup and haul it off with him.

The 28th state has loomed large over Washington for much of the past century — think the president, his father, Lyndon Johnson, Sam Rayburn, John Tower, Dick Armey and Tom DeLay.
But at noon on Jan. 20, Texas becomes — please don’t throw things — just another state.

“I guess Washington can finally exhale,” half-jokes former Bush counselor Dan Bartlett, a born-and-bred Texan who escaped to Austin last year.

The past 20 years — a dozen of them with a Texan in the White House — have seen the introduction of Shiner Bock beer to Washington grocery stores, the regular stocking of Dr Pepper at Congressional Liquor, plus the arrivals of both a Capitol Hill Tex-Mex establishment (Tortilla Coast, in 1988) and a centrally located downtown barbecue joint (Nick Fontana’s Capitol Q, in 1997).

Those may be here to stay, but other aspects of Texas’ political and cultural influence are already on the wane.

From 1995 through 2005, Armey and then DeLay held the office of House majority leader. But Armey is now five years removed from power, and DeLay is entangled in a criminal case.

And while The Hammer’s redistricting crusade in 2003 certainly helped Texas Republicans at the time, it has come back to haunt the state under Democratic rule. If not for DeLay’s machinations, three Texas Democrats would likely be sitting pretty these days as chairmen of powerful House committees: former Reps. Jim Turner (Homeland Security), Martin Frost (Rules) and Charlie Stenholm (Agriculture).

Instead, they’re all now exes, living in Texas, having lost their elections in 2004.

“I guess it’s unrealistic for any state to continue to enjoy national influence dating back to the ’20s and ’30s,” says Frost. “Texas has had this unbroken run. And sooner or later, it had to come to an end.”

That the end has come should be clear on the eve of Barack Obama’s inauguration, when the Texas State Society hosts its Black Tie & Boots Inaugural Ball at the Gaylord hotel at National Harbor in Maryland.

The last such hoodang, in 2005, drew 12,000 attendees, but there was a recently reelected Texan in the White House then. By contrast, on the night before Bill Clinton’s second inauguration, only about 7,000 people deigned to don their Tony Lamas.

Organizers are braced for another not-exactly-Texas-sized turnout in January.

Still, for those Democratic Texans who will remain in the nation’s capital, there’s a bright side to the changeover.

“I happen to be Republican,” says Jennifer Sarver, historian for the Texas State Society of Washington, D.C. “But most of my social friends are Democrats, and they are sick and tired of everybody assuming that if you’re Texan, you’re a conservative or a Republican.”

Democratic Rep. Gene Green says, “Our influence ebbs and flows, and I think we might lose some influence now.” Nevertheless, Green notes that he recently became the first subcommittee chairman from Texas on the Energy and Commerce Committee.

Former Clinton adviser Paul Begala, who cultivated his twang while growing up in DeLay’s old congressional district, crows about this marking the “end of the Texas Republican.”

“When the majority of Texas Republicans voted against a Texas Republican president’s economic package, ... then I don’t know what it means to be a Texas Republican anymore,” he said.

Since at least the 1960s, Texans have been simultaneously admired and loathed by the rest of Washington. Their command, for the most part, has come on account of seniority. Their home districts were so safe that they were able to stay in Washington more or less all of the time and invest wholeheartedly in committee work.

“I think it played well back home. You find a very significant pride in the state, and I think the state was proud of it. I know in the case of my boss, [former Rep.] Bill Archer, when he became chairman of the Committee [on Ways and Means, in 1996], I never got a single complaint about him not being home. They were just happy he was chairman.”

Don Carlson, who spent 35 years as a Hill staffer to Texas Republicans, said that his bosses “left a legacy that the Texas delegation was a very powerful delegation, whether it was true in all the years after that or not. Certainly they left their mark on Texas with what they were able to do in terms of funding.”

Military bases and transportation structures and a space station in Texas stand as testimony to the legacy of might. According to a Houston Chronicle analysis, Texas received $2.2 billion in federal earmarks last year, second only to California.

So who carries on the Lone Star tradition in a Democrat-dominated Congress?

For the moment, the reins fall into the hands of Texas Republican Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn. Both have been known to wear the boots, but neither attracts the cult of personality Washington has come to expect from denizens of the state that calls itself a republic.

Republicans think they have a rising star in Rep. Jeb Hensarling, the chairman of the Republican Study Committee. Democrats think they have one in Rep. Chet Edwards, who chairs the Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction.

Currently, only two Texas Democrats chair committees in the House — Silvestre Reyes (Intelligence) and Gene Green (Ethics) — and neither of them is standing.

“That’s almost unheard of,” says Carlson.

Without a Texan in the White House or in a top-level leadership spot, members from the state may have to work across the aisle if they hope to bring home the bacon like they did in days of yore.

“If it could get its s--t together as a group of 32,” says one Texas-born Democratic Hill staffer, “there are very few things it can’t get accomplished, even if most of them are in the minority.”

The Bush administration and the Texas delegation have one last chance this year to deliver some love for the folks back home: a new federally funded agricultural biosecurity lab is considering five proposed sites, including one in San Antonio.

Texans or no Texans, real pork will still be served in Washington. Nick Fontana says he’s not too worried about his barbecue business. He says Bush has never darkened his door, and that Washington is probably ready for a break from the stomp, stomp, stomping of big Texas boots, anyway.

“People don’t realize how big and diverse Texas is,” he says. “Europeans and foreigners here think that every Texan is a crazy, redneck cowboy.”

But Bartlett says even Washingtonians will eventually come around. “I won’t be surprised if there is a resurgence after this president rides off into the sunset and all those animosities and short-term issues around George W. Bush fade away,” he says.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Scalia and Originalism


For those that did not make the lecture, you missed a great chance to hear from a rare source, a Supreme Court Justice.
Here is the debate:
The "original form of originalism" was known as intentionalism, or "Original intent", and entailed applying laws based on the subjective intention of its authors. For instance, the authors of the U.S. Constitution would be the group of "Founding Fathers" that drafted it. The intentionalist methodology involves studying the writings of its authors, or the records of the Philadelphia Convention, for clues as to their intent.

There are two kinds of "intent analysis", reflecting two meanings of the word "intent". The first, a rule of common law construction during the Founding Era, is functional intent. The second is motivational intent. To understand the difference, one can use the metaphor of an architect who designs a Gothic church with flying buttresses. The functional intent of flying buttresses is to prevent the weight of the roof from spreading the walls and causing a collapse of the building, which can be inferred from examining the design as a whole. The motivational intent might be to create work for his brother-in-law who is a flying buttress subcontractor. Using original intent analysis of the first kind, we can discern that the language of Article III of the U.S. Constitution was to delegate to Congress the power to allocate original and appellate jurisdictions, and not to remove some jurisdiction, involving a constitutional question, from all courts. That would suggest that the decision was wrong in Ex Parte McCardle[11]

Arguments For:
A constitution is approved by the authority of the people; originalism is required to maintain their sovereignty.

If a constitution no longer meets the exigencies of a society's "evolving standard of decency", and the people wish to amend or replace the document, there is nothing stopping them from doing so in the manner which was envisioned by the drafters: through the amendment process. The "Living Constitution" approach would thus only be valuable in the absence of an amendment process.

Originalism deters judges from unfettered discretion to inject their personal values into constitutional interpretation. Before one can reject originalism, one must find another criterion for determining the meaning of a provision, lest the "opinion of this Court [rest] so obviously upon nothing but the personal views of its members."[23] Scalia has averred that "there is no other" criteria to constrain judicial interpretation.[24]

Originalism helps ensure predictability and protects against arbitrary changes in the interpretation of a constitution; to reject originalism implicitly repudiates the theoretical underpinning of another theory of stability in the law, stare decisis.

If a constitution as interpreted can truly be changed at the decree of a judge, then "[t]he Constitution… is a mere thing of wax in the hands of the judiciary which they may twist and shape into any form they please," said Thomas Jefferson. Hence, the purpose of the constitution would be defeated, and there would be no reason to have one.

If a constitution is to be interpreted in light of "the evolving standards of decency," why, in most democratic countries, should the highest authority of judicial branch, e.g. the Supreme Court in U.S., be the ones to have the final say over its interpretation? Is not the legislative branch which is elected, thereby more likely to be in touch with the current standards of decency, and therefore better placed to make such judgements? If originalism is wrong, then Marbury v. Madison — which holding underpins judicial review of constitutionality, that is, the meaning of the constitution — was wrongly decided, and two centuries of jurisprudence relying on it is thereby on shaky ground.

Sometimes the Ninth Amendment to the United States Constitution is cited as an example by originalism critics to attack Originalism. Self-described originalists have been at least as wiling as judges of other schools to give the Ninth Amendment no substantive meaning or to treat it as surplusage duplicative of the Tenth Amendment. Bork described it as a "Rorshach blot" and claimed that the courts had no power to identify or protect the rights supposedly protected by it. Scalia held similarly: [T]he Constitution's refusal to "deny or disparage" other rights is far removed from affirming any one of them, and even afarther removed from authorizing judges to identify what they might be, and to enforce the judges' list against laws duly enacted by the people." Troxel V Granville 530 US 57 (2000) (Scalia, J. Dissenting). Scalia's interpretation renders the Ninth Amendment entirely unenforcable and moot, which is clearly contrary to its original intent. However, this is a criticism of specific originalists -- and a criticism that they are insufficiently originalist — not a criticism of originalism. The theory of originalism as a whole is entirely compatible with the Ninth Amendment. Alternative theories of originalism such as Randy Barnett's[2] give the Ninth Amendment more practical effect than many other schools of legal thought do.

Contrary to critics of originalism, originalists do not always agree upon an answer to a constitutional question, nor is their any requirement that they have to. There is room for disagreement as to what original meaning was, and even more as to how that original meaning applies to the situation before the court. But the originalist at least knows what he is looking for: the original meaning of the text. Usually, that is easy to discern and simple to apply. Sometimes there will be disagreement regarding the original meaning; and sometimes there will be disagreement as to how that original meaning applies to new and unforeseen phenomena. How, for example, does the First Amendment of the U.S. constitution guarantee of “the freedom of speech” apply to new technologies that did not exist when the guarantee was codified - to sound trucks, or to government-licensed over-the-air television? In such new fields the Court must follow the trajectory of the First Amendment, so to speak, to determine what it requires, and that enterprise is not entirely cut-and-dried, but requires the exercise of judgment. But the difficulties and uncertainties of determining original meaning and applying it to modern circumstances are negligible compared with the difficulties and uncertainties of the philosophy which says that the constitution changes; that the very act which it once prohibited it now permits, and which it once permitted it now forbids; and that the key to that change is unknown and unknowable. The originalist, if he does not have all the answers, has many of them.[25]

If the people come to believe that the constitution is not a text like other texts; if it means, not what it says or what it was understood to mean, but what it should mean, in light of the evolving standards of decency that mark the progress of a maturing society,” they will look for qualifications other than impartiality, judgment, and lawyerly acumen in those whom they elect to interpret it. More specifically, they will look for people who agree with them as to what those evolving standards have evolved to; who agree with them as to what the constitution ought to be. If the courts are free to write the constitution anew, they will write it the way the majority wants; the appointment and confirmation process will see to that. This suggests the end of the Bill of Rights, whose meaning will be committed to the very body it was meant to protect against: the majority. By trying to make the constitution do everything that needs doing from age to age, we shall have caused it to do nothing at all.[25]

Arguments Against:
Originalism leads to unacceptable results. For example, interpreting the 14th Amendment only to protect liberty recognized at the time it was ratified provides no protection to groups who were discriminated against at that time, such as women and homosexuals. With originalism, the courts are extremely limited in their power to protect against discrimination.

Moreover, if one is then to look at the interpretation--or, 'meaning'--which inheres at the particular time period, the question becomes: why is that reading the essential one?. Or, restated, an essential reading, then, is owing to whom? Is it owing, then, to the meaning derived by the average person at that time? The collective intent of the voters who passed it? Or is it possible that they indeed entrusted the framers with the authority to draft the constitution, i.e., that the intent of the drafters should remain relevant? Originalism faces hermeneutic difficulties in understanding the intentions of the Founding Fathers, who lived 200 years ago (original intent), or the context of the time in which they lived (original meaning). Justice Scalia accepts this problem: "It's not always easy to figure out what the provision meant when it was adopted...I do not say [originalism] is perfect. I just say it's better than anything else." (Source)

An alternative form of the above argument is that legal controversy rarely arises over constitutional text with uncontroversial interpretations. How, then, does one determine the original "meaning" of an originally broad and ambiguous phrase? Thus, originalists often conceal their choice between levels of generality or possible alternative meanings as required by the original meaning when there is considerable room for disagreement.

It could be argued — as, for example, Justice Breyer has — that constitutions are meant to endure over time, and in order to do so, their interpretation must therefore be more flexible and responsive to changing circumstances than the amendment process.

It is further argued that the specific intent in drafting the United Stated Constitution was to create a broad and flexible document which would be interpreted in this manner. As Edmund Randolph set out at the Constitutional Convention, the goal was specifically "[t]o insert essential principles only; lest the operations of government should be clogged by rendering those provisions permanent and unalterable, which ought to be accommodated to times and events." The basis for now scrupulously trying to recreate 18th century meaning, thus, is often called into question, when it appears that the Constitution was written specifically to avoid binding future generations in this way.

This view is also supported by the fact that a constitution itself is silent on the appropriate method of constitutional interpretation. For example, had the framers intended for the U.S. Constitution to be interpreted in a specific manner they could have indicated as much in the text of the Constitution itself. The framers themselves, most of whom were lawyers and legal scholars, would presumably have known the confusion their lack of doing so would cause. The absence of any such guidance suggests either implicit support for contemporary interpretation, or that they could not agree on the correct method, neither of which should bind future generations.

The Ninth Amendment is the exception in that it does establish a rule of constitutional interpretation ("The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."). When interpreted using original intent or original meaning, it clearly protects rights which the founders had not thought to list explicitly -- a direct rebuke to all Textualist or Formalist legal schools including "originalism".

Originalism allows the "dead hand" of prior generations to control important contemporary issues down to an extraordinary and unnecessary level of detail. While everyone agrees that broad constitutional principles should control, if the question is whether abortion is a fundamental right, why should past centuries-old intentions be controlling? The originalist's distinction between original meaning and original intention here is also unclear, due to the difficulty of discussing "meaning" in terms of specific details that the Constitutional text does not clarify.

In writing such a broad phrase such as "cruel and unusual," it is implausible that the framers intended for its very specific meaning at that time to be permanently controlling. The purpose of phrases such as "cruel and unusual," rather, is specifically not to specify which punishments are forbidden, but to create a flexible test that can be applied over future centuries. Stated alternatively, there is no reason to think the framers have a privileged position in making this determination of what is cruel and unusual; while their ban on cruel punishment is binding on us, their understanding of the scope of the concept 'cruel' need not be.

If applied scrupulously, originalism requires the country either to continually reratify the Constitution in order to retain contemporary standards for tests such as "cruel and unusual punishment" or "unreasonable searches and seizures," or to change the language to specifically state that these tests shall be administered according to the standards of the society administering the test. Critics of originalism believe that the first approach is too burdensome, while the second is already inherently implied.

Originalism, as applied by its most prominent proponents, is sometimes pretext (or, at least, the "rules" of originalism are sometimes "bent") to reach desired ends, no less so than The Living Constitution. For example, Prof. Jack Balkin has averred that neither the original understanding nor the original intent of the 14th Amendment is compatible with the result implicitly reached by the Originalist Justices Thomas and Scalia in their willingness to join Chief Justice Rehnquist's concurrence in Bush v. Gore, 531 U.S. 98 (2000). Furthermore, while both Scalia and Thomas have objected on originalist grounds to the use of foreign law by the court (see, respectively, Thompson v. Oklahoma, 487 U.S. 815, 868 (1988), and Knight v. Florida, 528 U.S. 990 (1999)), both have allowed it to seep into their opinions at one time or another (see, respectively, McIntyre v. Ohio Elections Committee, 514 U.S. 334, 381 (1995) and Holder v. Hall, 512 U.S. 874, 904 (1994))

Originalists often argue that where a constitution is silent, judges should not "read rights into" it. Rights implicating abortion, sex and sexual orientation equality, and capital punishment are often thus described as issues that the Constitution does not speak to, and hence should not be recognized by the judiciary. Yet, the Ninth Amendment, provides that "[t]he enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people." Original intent thus calls for just the opposite of what the text of the Constitution and "original intent" of the founders arguably affirm, creating an inconsistency in the practice of at least one branch of Originalism.
So...who's right?

What's Almost Better Than Tech Beating A&M?


BAYLOR beating A&M!

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

39-33

I know, I know...I need to move on.
Scoreboard

The Iraq Next Door


As Americans went to the polls last week, Juan Camilo Mourino, Mexico's interior secretary, was falling to Earth over the capital in a fiery crash that killed him and 13 others.

Investigators are trying to determine why the helicopter carrying Mexico's second-highest official failed, but many think it was the work of drug cartels that Mexico has been at war with since 2006.

If traffickers were indeed responsible, they have sent a signal that they're coming for the government and can take down Mexico's leaders anywhere, anytime. If it was an accident, there's the disturbing implication that Mexico's aircraft are deficient even for its leaders. Either way, the U.S. ought to do more to help.

Some 4,400 Mexicans have been killed in the drug war this year alone — including a record 58 in one day last week. Grisly killings of honest cops, officials, innocent bystanders, kidnap victims and other traffickers engulf border towns like Juarez and Tijuana.

But the carnage is spreading even to formerly placid vacation spots such as Rosarito Beach on the west coast. The tourists, of course, are gone, U.S. State Department travel advisories are up, and local economies are withering.

Mexico has also become the kidnapping capital of the world, not only in numbers but in viciousness. Victims are often killed even after a ransom is paid. And they're no longer confined to the wealthy.

A week ago, the 5-year-old son of impoverished street merchants was taken and then, when a ransom wasn't paid, killed with an injection of acid into his heart. This week, 27 farm laborers were kidnapped. Twenty-six Americans have also been abducted in Mexico, and there are signs that it's spreading north of the border. A few weeks ago, 8-year-old Cole Puffenberger of Las Vegas was taken because a relative owed debts to drug cartels.

Two years ago, when Mexico went on the offensive against the drugs, every analyst dismissed the idea of Mexico becoming "another Colombia." No one believed that the impact of the drug trade could ever be as pervasive as in that South American country.

There, drug lords aligned with Marxist terrorists, burned down the Supreme Court, won seats in Congress and fought pitched battles with weapons more advanced than those used by the Colombian military. By 1998, they had nearly toppled the government.

The country was saved by a U.S. infusion of $6 billion in training and equipment that gave the country the tools it needed to fight back. That aid, combined with strong Colombian leadership, has worked wonders. Today, Colombia is a growing country with safe cities and victory in sight.

The U.S. still spends $600 million to train drug-fighters in Colombia, but that's $200 million more than we give Mexico for the same purpose. All of this pales in comparison with the $3 billion a year we send to Israel and the $1 billion sent to Georgia for reconstruction after the Russian attack, not to mention the $10 billion a month that goes to defending and rebuilding Iraq.

Yet we have a long, unguarded border with Mexico, where the drug war claimed more victims last year than the U.S. has suffered in fatalities since the war in Iraq began in 2003.

This is a bad skewing of priorities, and not just because of Mexico's proximity to the U.S., its capacity to ship millions of illegal immigrants and its status as America's second-largest trading partner.

The war Mexico is fighting is fueled by drug consumption north of the border, reason enough for the U.S. to share responsibility, as Mexico has asked. Mexico's war also has more potential to spread here than any other, and its insidious violence has a capacity to corrupt institutions and create insecurity. It should not fight this alone.


Do you think the U.S. should help finance or even send our military to help stop the violence in Mexico due to the drug trade?

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Obama and the 5%




Mark J. Penn

Barack Obama promised he would lower taxes for 95 percent of Americans and presumably raise them for the 5 percent who benefited most under President Bush’s tax policies. But, remarkably, the most affluent 5 percent supported Obama and that was perhaps the key to his victory last week.

This group — and the rise of a new elite class of voters — is at the heart of the fast-paced changes in demographics affecting the political, sociological and economic landscape of the country. While there has been some inflation over the past 12 years, the exit poll demographics show that the fastest growing group of voters in America has been those making over $100,000 a year in income. In 1996, only 9 percent of the electorate said their family income was that high. Last week it had grown to 26 percent — more than one in four voters. And those making over $75,000 are up to 15 percent from 9 percent. Put another way, more than 40 percent of those voting earned over $75,000, making this the highest-income electorate in history.

The poorest segment of the electorate, those making under $15,000, has shrunk from 11 percent to 6 percent over the past dozen years. And those making $15,000 to $30,000 annually — the working poor — also shrunk from 23 percent to 12 percent of the electorate.

At the same time, the voters have become more racially diverse (with white voters dropping 9 points from 1996 to 74 percent of the electorate and minorities) and better educated — voters who had attended some college are surging.

While Obama received record votes from the expanded minority communities, that alone would not have led to victory had he not also secured so much support among the growing professional class — and in doing so went beyond the successful 1996 coalition that also climbed the income ladder to include newly targeted soccer moms. Back then, President Clinton got 38 percent of the vote among those making over $100,000. This year Obama earned 49 percent of that vote. He also got 52 percent of a new polling category — those making over $200,000 a year who were no longer among the top 1 percent of earners, as they had been in past elections, but were now the top 6 per cent.

And for all the talk about the surging youth vote, those under 29 went from 17 percent in 1996 and 17 percent in 2004 to a mere to 18 percent of the electorate today — and that youth surge was heavily fueled by the fact that the minority communities are much younger than their white counterparts. Of the 18 percent under age 29 who voted this year, 11 percent were white and 7 percent were minority.

So the fusion of expanded minority voting and the expanded upper class, combined with shifting demographics, were key to Obama’s victory. But while demographers have been predicting the growth in minority voting — especially the Latino increases — for decades, they did not predict the upscale income changes in the electorate or focus on them. Most people in America (over 80 percent) no matter what their income, say they are middle class, which is why that phrase is so powerful on the stump.


But 69 percent of all Americans in polls I conducted in recent years now also call themselves “professionals,” a new class transcending the old class labels or working or middle class or the wealthy. They have white-collar jobs requiring higher education and are earning more than ever before. Because of layoffs and business scandals of recent years, they have become increasingly embittered toward the corporate cultures that would have otherwise been their natural home base.

Unlike the small-businessman who is typically anti-government, these professionals come out of the era of the growth of global corporations believing more than ever before in government intervention, teamwork and collective action. They are the voters who favored the bailout, while the left and the right saw it as a betrayal of their fundamental principles.

These higher educated voters generally believe more in science than religion, in the interconnectedness of the world, and in pragmatism over ideology. They see us all living in a new world and are watching their kids enter it taking new economy kinds of jobs in places increasingly far away from home.

This group is at the core of voters receiving more of their information online and through cable TV in their offices all day long. As they leave many of the problems of working class life behind, this new class is easily captivated by the Sunday shows. What appears on the front pages has more impact on shaping their views than what they experience in their everyday life.

In the end when it comes to a congressional vote, will they support higher taxes if they have to pay them? That is a big question that remains to be seen – they could quickly fragment over the issue if it gets raised early in the Obama administration. And they part company with many other Obama supporters in believing that we need to compete and win in the global economy, seeing trade as a necessity for economic growth.

These new professionals in software, the media, consulting, and mid-management have now declared themselves to be Democrats. After seeing Clinton and Bush back to back, they have switched their votes as part of a rejection of the religious right, the war in Iraq, and laissez-faire economics.

The history of revolution usually parallels the history of rising, not falling incomes, and the middle class revolutions of 1848 brought many countries the democratic system in the first place. In the Obama revolution, the upper-classing of America took a front seat – the central question is whether they will remain there.

So why would those who, in theory, not benefit from Obama's tax plan vote overwhelmingly for him?

Monday, November 10, 2008

How Much is Your Vote Really Worth?


Nov. 3rd op-ed in the New York Times looks at how the electoral college used to determine the president of the United States disproportionately favors smaller states. For example, 1 electoral vote in Wyoming represents 134,783 voters, while 1 electoral vote in Pennsylvania represents 456,216 votes.
This map shows each state re-sized in proportion to the relative influence of the individual voters who live there. The numbers indicate the total delegates to the Electoral College from each state, and how many eligible voters a single delegate from each state represents.
So what is your opinion on the electoral college? Pros and Cons?

Haiku of the Day


Election is over

What will I do without polls

At least Tech is there!

The Demographics of Winning


The broad sweep of Barack Obama’s victory included significant gains in some of the unlikeliest places — the nation's fastest-growing counties.

Four years after George W. Bush underscored the Republican dominance of these places by winning 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties, Obama won 15 of them in 2008 and dramatically scaled back the GOP's margin of victory in many more, according to a Politico analysis of unofficial election results in the Census Bureau’s 100 counties that grew the fastest between April 2000 and July 2007.

Obama won the three largest of these high-growth counties: Riverside County in Southern California, Las Vegas’ Clark County and the Research Triangle’s Wake County, N.C.

Obama ran ahead of Democrat John Kerry’s 2004 performance in 94 of the counties and grew the Democratic share by 8 or more percentage points in 29 of them. His improved performance over John Kerry in these high-growth places probably provided his margin of victory in at least two closely contested states: Indiana and North Carolina.

The counties on the Census Bureau list cover 31 states, and their growth rates range from 77.5 percent in Kendall County, Ill., to 27.9 percent in Burnet County, Texas. The largest is Riverside County, with an estimated population of just over 2 million; the smallest is Spencer County, Ky., outside of Louisville.

The nation’s fastest-growing counties, many of them exurbs on the outskirts of metropolitan areas, have been killing fields for Democratic candidates in recent elections. In 2000, Bush carried 91 of the 100 fastest-growing counties at the time — and in nearly half, he won by landslide margins of more than 2-to-1.

But beginning in 2005, Democrats began to show signs of life on the exurban frontier. In Virginia, Tim Kaine won six of the state’s 10 fastest-growing counties, including Loudoun and Prince William counties, both of which backed Bush twice and both of which are currently among the nation’s 100 fastest-growing counties.

“Things are different in the exurbs than they were in 2004. Think about commuting, energy costs, the economy, home foreclosures and housing values,” said Robert Lang, co-director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech University. “And there have been changes in the character of the exurbs. They were happier four years ago and slightly less diverse and slightly less tied into the cosmopolitan atmosphere of the cities.”

While the economic and political environment has changed significantly from 2004, the improved Democratic performance in counties experiencing the most explosive population growth can also be traced to the Obama campaign’s aggressive outreach efforts.

“Obama said he’d run directly at these places. Where was his last stop? Manassas,” noted Lang, referring to the county seat of Virginia’s Prince William County. Obama won the county 56 percent to 43 percent.

In Indiana, the attention may have been enough to deliver the state’s 11 electoral votes. In heavily Republican Hamilton County, which grew by 43 percent between 2000 and 2007, the Obama effort included a visit from Michelle Obama, two storefront campaign offices, a local Republicans for Obama organization and aggressive canvassing operations.

After two consecutive elections in which Bush won 74 percent, Hamilton County gave John McCain a considerably diminished 61 percent to 39 percent win.

In Hendricks County, Indiana’s only other entrant among the fastest-growing 100, the story was the same: a 74 percent Bush county where McCain managed only 61 percent. Between the two, GOP presidential margins were down more than 32,000 votes from 2004 in a state that Obama won by less than 26,000 votes.

North Carolina’s Wake County, one of the 13 fast-growing Bush counties that Obama picked off, proved even more decisive. In 2004, Bush carried Wake by 51 percent to 49 percent, with a winning margin of 7,415 votes. Four years later, Obama won 57 percent to 42 percent there, with a winning margin of 63,370 votes in a state Obama won by less than 14,000 votes.

“Democrats in general are beginning to change their tune about these areas. There’s a conscious effort to compete in these areas and not concede them,” said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress who has written extensively about the suburbs and exurbs. “Ninety percent of life is showing up, and the fact that Obama showed up in these areas made a real difference.”

Friday, November 7, 2008

1,152


days until the Iowa caucuses for the 2012 Presidential election.


Remember, politicians have two jobs:


1) Get elected

2) Get reelected


So, who do you think the early frontrunners are for the GOP in 2012?


Jindal? Palin? Huckabee? Romney?

Thursday, November 6, 2008

How He Won...By the Numbers







By Paul Maslin

While some more mail-in ballots must still be counted on the Pacific Coast, it appears that Obama has won by approximately 6 percentage points (it may yet rise to 7), garnering just over 52 percent of the vote. And depending on the final outcome in North Carolina and the "rogue" Nebraska 2nd Congressional District, he may have won 364 electoral votes. Both the margin and the electoral count appear to be almost precisely what the average national poll result forecast and the compilation of state-by-state polls suggested as well.

Victory has 100 fathers, John Kennedy famously observed, quoting the Italian Fascist Count Ciano. But in this case I believe three contributing factors to Obama's triumph stand out.

First, the extraordinary support Obama won among young people and African-Americans. I speculated last spring in this space that these two factors alone would pretty much eliminate the Bush-Kerry margin -- I believe that to be exactly what occurred. The 18-to-29-year-old cohort supported Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (66-32), and while it is too soon to gauge precise turnout measures, their numbers clearly grew. Likewise for blacks, who responded to the history-making call of Obama with a 96 percent support level, dwarfing the margin earned by other recent Democratic nominees, and also apparently voting in higher numbers throughout most of the old Confederacy.

Second, the financial crisis. While I believe that without the collapse of Lehman Brothers and all the chaos that ensued from that September weekend Barack Obama would still have ridden the wave of change to victory, his margin was clearly enhanced by the dominant role played by the economy this fall. The Upper Midwest and Industrial Belt became a killing zone for John McCain -- as Obama carried every state between Boston and St. Louis, and apparently only narrowly missed extending that command west to Kansas City with a victory in Missouri. In my home state of Wisconsin, Obama's margin mushroomed to an extraordinary 13 points. Just look at any of the electoral maps of the Badger State and realize that all that blue was produced by nearly all-white rural counties and small towns that many thought would never support an African-American candidate.

Third, the actual performance of the two candidates. The flip side of a change candidate, particularly someone as new to the national scene as Obama, is always risk. And the McCain campaign signaled very early on that it would try to exploit its man's advantage on experience and national security matters against the untested newcomer. And yet the other axiom is that presidential debates are the province of the challenger, for they allow him (or her, though Palin didn't quite pull off her version) to pass through a credibility or acceptability threshold with the electorate -- to increase the comfort level, if you will. Obama did just that in the three debates, and it didn't hurt that for one critical period McCain seemed to come unglued, suspending his campaign, threatening to pull out of the first debate, and setting up shop in Washington to no apparent end. The supposedly risky candidate became the steady hand, and vice versa.

Here's what else we have learned from the dimensions of this victory:

1) Turnout rose, but only selectively. It may actually have dropped in California and parts of the Northeast, where the outcome was never in doubt and the candidates did not compete for votes. But there were large gains in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, South Carolina, Texas, Alabama and Georgia, obviously a product of African-American voting, but also of simple population growth. And there were also large gains in Indiana, Missouri and Nevada, all testaments to the Obama organization as well as the late media focus on the close battle in each of those states. Actually, I am willing to guess that a couple of million or so Republicans who voted in 2004 stayed home this year -- Ohio's vote actually seems to have declined.

2) The map was pretty much what I laid out last May, with two big exceptions. Obama produced the predicted Western sweep, with impressive victories in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, buoyed by young voters but also 65 percent support among Latinos. Obama won impressively in Virginia and perhaps narrowly in North Carolina, an exacta I hinted at last spring but frankly thought would be limited to just the home of Jefferson. He dominated the supposedly close swing state troika of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The surprises were the breakthrough win in Florida, and the narrow victory (as of this writing) in Indiana. The latter was an incredible feat that only those of us associated with Sen. Evan Bayh (I was his pollster in the run-up to his decision not to run) thought possible.

3) Within that map, there has been a lot of moving and shaking from 2004. Obama's national vote share will rise about 4 points from that earned by John Kerry four years ago, from 48 to 52 percent. Here are the current leaders in improved Democratic presidential vote, 2008 over 2004 (precise numbers subject to change by final vote tallies):

Hawaii +18 (this, not his margin in Illinois, was Obama's real home-state edge)
Indiana +11 (a simply stunning outcome)
Delaware +9 (the other home-state edge)
North Dakota +9
Utah +9 (Some Republicans stayed home?)
Montana +8
Vermont +8
Nebraska +8
New Mexico +8

Stop for a second. Look at the six states I've just listed (after Delaware) and realize one fundamental fact about all of them. There is no appreciable African-American population in any. These are gains that Obama registered among whites (and in the case of New Mexico, Hispanic voters), GOP turnout decline or no GOP turnout decline. And if you remember my "Northern" theory, it is not a surprise that the whites who would move toward Obama live in places with few blacks and therefore little intra-racial antagonism or perceived threat.

California +7 (may still change)
Nevada +7

And then a whole host of states with roughly 6-point Obama gains, including Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, South Dakota, Texas (!), Wisconsin, Idaho and Virginia.

The single striking regional exception is the Deep South. One can certainly speculate that there Obama's gains among white voters were either nonexistent or negligible. But again it is the marvel of the Obama ground game that it produced huge performance increases in Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and Virginia, as well as the three crucial Southwestern states -- places the campaign clearly targeted as opportunity red states from the get-go. Some of the map expansion talk was a feint, trying to draw McCain's money away from key states, but most of it was real, and it paid off handsomely.

4) He only got half the congressional loaf. As of this writing the Democrats have picked up five Senate seats for certain, and very possibly another to come in Oregon, but have fallen short of the filibuster-proof majority some hoped for, as Alaska's Ted Stevens appears headed for a narrow victory, Minnesota's Norm Coleman leads Al Franken pending a recount, and the Georgia runoff would still appear to favor Saxby Chambliss. They were thus stopped well short of a filibuster-proof majority. And the gains in the House appear to be around 20 seats, and not the more bullish 25- to 30-seat gain that many were forecasting. Is this good or bad for Obama? Some might argue he got all the responsibility of a near-landslide win without the strongest possible team to execute that responsibility. Others might claim that the limits placed on Democratic power and hubris might be a good thing, and lead to more consenus building if not outright bipartisanship that will better preserve what, after all, is still a pretty fragile majority against the turmoil undoubtedly to come.

And finally, a personal note. Twice in my life I have found myself shockingly overcome with emotion when I least expected it. Once came at the end of what I had been thinking was a good, but not great, film about baseball, the sport I love, "Field of Dreams." Kevin Costner started throwing catch with the ghost that was his father and I lost it.

Last night a victory occurred that I had expected for months. After Sept. 15, the outcome for me was never in doubt and I chided fellow Democrats for their Nervous Nelliedom or suspicions about Republican high jinks or racist backlash. "He's going to win -- and pretty big," was my constant refrain. And as a hired gun who knows some of Obama's top command, of course I had mixed feelings. In part I was envious of their incredible success. That's the nature of a highly competitive industry. Ten minutes before 10 p.m. Central, I realized what was going to happen when the next hour hit and the West Coast polls closed, and I called my wife and told her to make sure our 16-year-old daughter, who had volunteered for Obama here in Madison, was watching. And then came the announcement, and the crowd shots from Grant Park, and tears just started to flow. My country had done something so extraordinary, so unthinkable just a few years ago, so inspiring. We didn't erase the stain of slavery and racism, but we sure did bury it -- at least for a while.

How Obama Did It


By Karl Rove


Intense and gripping, the 2008 election was also historic. The son of a Kenyan immigrant and an American mother has risen to the presidency of history's most powerful nation. Who was not moved by the sight of Jesse Jackson standing silently among strangers with tears streaming down his face as he thought of a long journey towards equality and acceptance?

So how did Barack Obama win? Some of it was fortune: He was a fresh, gifted, charismatic leader who emerged at just the moment that people yearned for something entirely new.

Some of it was circumstance: The October Surprise arrived a month early and framed the election in the best possible way for Mr. Obama (and the worst possible way for John McCain).

Some of it was thoughtful positioning: His themes of bipartisanship and a readiness to tackle the country's pressing challenges were enormously attractive, especially when delivered with hope and optimism.

And some of it was planning and execution: The Obama campaign, led by the two Davids -- Plouffe, the manager, and Axelrod, the strategist -- carefully built a powerful army of persuasion aimed at accomplishing two tasks.

A candidate can improve his party's performance by getting additional people out to vote and persuading people inclined to support the other party to cross over. The first yields an additional vote; the second is worth two, the one a candidate gets and the one he takes away from his opponent.

Before Karl became known as "The Architect" of President Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns, he was president of Karl Rove + Company, an Austin-based public affairs firm that worked for Republican candidates, nonpartisan causes, and nonprofit groups. His clients included over 75 Republican U.S. Senate, Congressional and gubernatorial candidates in 24 states, as well as the Moderate Party of Sweden.

So the two Davids registered millions of voters in states the Obama campaign picked as battlegrounds, especially where there were many heretofore-disinterested African Americans and younger Democrats. Messrs. Plouffe and Axelrod understood that over the last 28 years only 11 of 20 eligible Americans on average cast a presidential ballot. They focused on registering and motivating the other nine who don't usually vote. This decision, perhaps more than any other, allowed Mr. Obama to win such previously red states as Virginia, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada. It forced Mr. McCain to spend most of the fall on defense, unable to take once-reliably Republican states for granted.

Second, Messrs. Plouffe and Axelrod pried away from the GOP ranks small but decisive slices of the Republican presidential coalition. We can't be precise, because for the third election in a row the exit polls were trash. The raw numbers forecast an 18-point Obama win, news organizations who underwrote the poll arbitrarily dialed it down to a 10-point Obama edge, and the actual margin was six.

But we do know President-elect Obama ran better among frequent churchgoers (perhaps getting 10 points more than John Kerry did), independents (perhaps five points more than Kerry and eight points more than Al Gore), Hispanics and white men. He even made special appeals to gun owners and sent his wife to cultivate military families. This allowed him to carry previously red states like Florida, New Mexico and Iowa.

This combination helped Senator Obama run four points better nationally than John Kerry did in 2004 and 2.5 points better than Al Gore did in 2000. These small changes on the margin meant all the difference between winning and losing.

It is a tribute to his skills that Mr. Obama, the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate, won in a country that remains center-right. Most pre-election polls and the wiggly exits indicate America remains ideologically stable, with 34% of voters saying they are conservative -- unchanged from 2004. Moderates went to 44% from 45% of the electorate, while liberals went to 22% from 21%.

Mr. Obama understood this. He downplayed calls for retreat from Iraq, instead emphasizing toughness on Afghanistan, even threatening an ally, Pakistan, if it didn't help more to exterminate al Qaeda. Mr. Obama campaigned on "a tax cut for 95% of Americans," while attacking "government-run health care" as "extreme" and his opponent's proposals as hidden tax increases.

Mr. Obama and his team achieved was impressive. But in 75 days comes the hard part. We saw a glimpse of the challenge Tuesday night. The president-elect's speech, while graceful and at times uplifting, was light when it comes to an agenda. That may have been appropriate, but it also continued a pattern.

Many Americans were drawn to Mr. Obama because they saw in him what they wanted to see. He became a large vessel into which voters placed their hopes. This can lead to disappointment and regret. What of the woman who, in the closing days of the campaign, rejoiced that Mr. Obama would pay for her gas and take care of her mortgage, tasks that no president can shoulder?

The country voted for change Tuesday. But the precise direction of that change remains unclear. Mr. Obama's victory was personal rather than philosophical. The soaring hopes and vague incantations of "change" that have characterized the last 21 months were the poetry phase; a prosaic phase is about to begin.

This should be an interesting few years. Let every American hope for the success of the new president and the country we all love.

Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

10 Questions for Election Day


Nearly two years after the 2008 campaign officially began, Election Day is finally here. The path from there (when John Edwards announced his candidacy in December of 2006) to here has been unpredictable at times and unprecedented in so many ways.

No matter what happens, history will be made when the voters have had their say and elect either the first black president or the first woman vice president.

Barring a repeat of 2000, the campaign will come to an end at some point late tonight or perhaps in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The most expensive election in U.S. history will be in the books and all the thousands of TV ads as well as all those national and state polls will be rendered meaningless.

There’s not much left to be said as voters head out to vote in what both sides are predicting to be record numbers. But, plenty of questions remain to be answered as the results come in. Here are 10 questions for Election Day:

1. What Should You Watch For Today? With turnout projections extremely high, long lines and reports of problems at the polls throughout the day will be worth keeping an eye on. Weather forecasts for much of the nation show few potential trouble spots but rain could be an issue stretching from southeast Pennsylvania to parts of Virginia and North Carolina - all battleground states.

It’s not at all unlikely that long lines, particularly in urban areas, will result in some states or cities extending voting hours, which could delay results in key places. Also, large numbers of voters means more to count for overworked election officials, which could mean the results coming in slower than normal.

Exit poll or purported exit poll information could spread anywhere on the Internet but be wary of anything you see. Quarantine procedures virtually guarantee that real data does not get out until much later in the day and, even then, anything you see could easily be early and incomplete. Beware.

Jeff Greenfield has a more complete breakdown of what to keep an eye on once the polls have closed, but right off the bat, before 8:00pm Eastern, the big four targets are Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio. All are states carried by Republicans in at least the last two presidential elections and are crucial to John McCain’s hopes. If he’s doing well in those four states, it could be a long night.

2. Can Obama Win A Mandate? Democrats haven't won big mandates in presidential elections in recent history (and even Republicans have to go back a way to find their last big victory). However, Democrats' hopes have been raised by the polls leading up to the election that this could be a defining year, both nationally and in the Electoral College.

So, what would a mandate look like? Compared to the last four elections, it wouldn’t take much to win a big one. Bill Clinton won a whopping 370 Electoral Votes in 1992 but only managed a popular vote plurality of 43 percent, thanks to Ross Perot’s nearly 19 percent grab in that election as a third-party candidate. Clinton bettered his haul in 1996, winning 379 Electoral Votes, but still fell just short of a majority in the popular vote. Nobody needs to be reminded about the narrow split decision in 2000 and in 2004, George W. Bush just barely managed a majority in both.

A convincing popular vote victory appears within reach for Obama. With big turnout by black and young voters, Obama could run up his vote in states he’s unlikely to win - like Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas - and in states he should win easily, like California and New York. A big Electoral College win is a bit trickier but not out of the question. Should states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida all tilt Democratic this year, it probably means he’s also winning Virginia and Colorado - perhaps even North Carolina and Indiana.

Fifty-three percent or higher in the popular vote combined with 338 or more Electoral Votes wouldn’t be a 49-state, 59 percent Reagan sweep, but a mandate nonetheless.

3. Can McCain Pull Off A Shocker? Don’t think this isn’t a real possibility. The odds are long, no doubt about it, but it’s not out of the question. So much has been made about this campaign taking place on largely Republican territory that it’s often forgotten that it is just that - Republican territory.

George Bush didn’t win two presidential elections by pure luck - he did it with very reliable get-out-the vote machines in many of these same states. For all the hype and attention given to Obama’s organization, Republicans have flown under the radar screen. But senior party officials say they are revving it up to the hilt and remain confident that there is at least a path to 270. If McCain can take places like Ohio and Virginia, that probably means teetering states like Indiana and Missouri can be held as well.

While Obama has made real inroads in the west, Pennsylvania could be this year’s Ohio or Florida from past elections. It’s an inside straight to be sure, but the cards left in the deck give them a shot.

4. What Does Massive Turnout Mean? Both sides in this election (and isn’t it telling that third party candidates have all but disappeared on all levels this year?) are predicting record turnout - at least in terms of raw numbers, if not percentage. There could be as many as 130 million Americans casting votes.

Conventional wisdom holds that increased turnout will benefit Obama in a big way. That might well be true. But even if larger numbers of black and young voters turn out to vote, their totals as a percentage won’t have the same impact if Republicans increase their share of the pie as well. Keep this in mind when you begin to hear about large turnout tomorrow: In 2004, Democrats not only far exceeded their turnout in Ohio, John Kerry received more votes than any other presidential candidate of his party, ever. But he lost, because Republicans did the same. Huge turnout could be a wash but probably benefits Obama, at least in the popular vote.

5. Can New Hampshire Happen Again? Remember the New Hampshire primary? Most polls had Obama cruising to a big win, some by as many as ten points. It was supposed to be the finishing blow to Hillary Clinton, who was staggering after a third-place finish in Iowa. But Clinton came back to win and take Obama all the way to the very end of the primary season.

Another bothersome signal for Obama is that he sometimes over-performed in exit polling during the primary season, getting much less of the actual vote than projected. There’s no way to tell whether many of these polls heading into the election are right or wrong until after the votes come in, but keep an eye out in those states where Obama remains in the lead, yet under 50 percent. If his support is being exaggerated, those are the first places you’ll see it.

6. What Will The Palin Effect Be? There is absolutely no doubt about it - love her or hate her, Sarah Palin has been the most interesting part of the last two months of the campaign. Since bursting onto the scene, the Alaska Governor has become arguably the most divisive figure in American politics today.

In the eyes of many analysts - and not a small number of Republicans - the choice of Palin has been a huge drag on the ticket. That view is backed up by a lot of polling data which shows that she has turned many moderate and independent voters away from McCain. But what none of that measures is the excitement she has generated among an evangelical base which was cool, at best, to McCain’s candidacy. These are the people whose organizational networks have powered the Republican Party for more than two decades.

If you’re inclined to write off Palin as a disaster of a pick, remember this: Before McCain had clinched the nomination, influential evangelical leader James Dobson proclaimed that he would never support him. After his pick of Palin, he enthusiastically came on board. For every potential vote in the middle McCain may have lost, he could gain one-and-a-half from reliable conservatives who may have stayed home otherwise.

7. Did "Joe The Plumber" Help? When “Joe The Plumber” stumbled upon Barack Obama canvassing in his Toledo, Ohio neighborhood, he inadvertently gave voice to a McCain economic message that had been a bumbling one at best. After initially calling the economy fundamentally strong, then “suspending” his campaign to work on the Wall Street bailout, McCain was lost on the most important issue for voters.

Enter “Joe The Plumber,” whose short exchange with Obama got the anti-tax juices running among Republicans. His name has become a campaign staple and served to revive the image of the Democratic Party as tax-and-spend. Polls still show that voters are just as likely to believe McCain would raise taxes as they do Obama but at least it’s given McCain a stable message. It could help, especially in places like Ohio and western Pennsylvania. If McCain wins, “Joe The Plumber” will have a special place in campaign history.

8. Did Clinton Voters Come Home? It’s been the biggest concern for Democrats since the primary season ended - will Hillary Clinton’s supporters come home? Polls have indicated that, in large part, they have. And Clinton, along with her husband, have coalesced around Obama in the closing weeks of the campaign.

But there remains a question mark about whether her supporters, especially the so-called “PUMAS,” (Party Unity My A$%), will stay home - or even vote for McCain. In most instances it won’t matter as many of them live in reliably blue states. But in those places where Clinton thrashed Obama in the primary campaign - particularly Ohio and Pennsylvania, those blue-collar men and women who supported Clinton could be a real benefit for the GOP if they move to McCain.

9. How Big Was The Bush Drag? In many respects, it’s almost a miracle that McCain enters Election Day with any chance at all. The latest CBS News poll tells the tale - President Bush has reached the lowest approval rating for any president in recorded history. Just 20 percent of voters approve of the job he is doing.

That’s the kind of head-wind Republicans are running against. From top to bottom, the GOP brand has been tarnished. The war in Iraq, a floundering economy and governmental mismanagement at all levels have produced a frustrated electorate hungry for a message of change. It hasn’t been all Bush’s fault, but he certainly gets the blame and has become the kind of drag on the ticket that could pull down a whole lot of candidates.

10. Can Democrats Hit 60 In The Senate? It’s not going to be easy, but Democrats are within striking distance of winning a filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. With a larger majority in the House all but certain, the party could rule nearly unimpeded if that were to happen.

Democrats are almost certain to pick up Republican-held Senate seats in Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and probably Alaska. They are favored in another three at this point - North Carolina, Oregon and New Hampshire. And Republicans are holding their breath in the Mississippi special election (where no party ID is on the ballot), Minnesota, Kentucky and Georgia (where there could be a runoff if no candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote in a three-way race).

Should a real wave sweep over the country today, it’s not at all improbable to think that Democrats would pick up the nine seats they need to have that daunting majority. Then they’ll have to deal with Joe Lieberman, the Democrat-turned-Independent who now caucuses with his old party but has endorsed John McCain enthusiastically. It’s a reminder that politics doesn’t ever stop, especially after a presidential election.

Happy Election Day, get out and vote.

Final Predictions


Here are my predictions for tonights election results:


Presidential Election:


Obama: 364

McCain: 174


If Obama wins the popular vote by +7 or +8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota.

If Obama wins by only 3 to 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible for McCain to carry a couple of the following states: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio.




Senate Projections:





*Democrats: 58 or 59 (+7 or +8)


*Republicans: 41 or 42 (-7 or -8)

* The Georgia race will go to a runoff on Dec. 2nd
No candidate will receive 50% of the vote today

Democrats will hold all of their races and the Republicans will lose the following races:
Alaska (Stevens)
Colorado (Schaffer)
New Mexico (Pearce)
New Hampshire (Sununu)
North Carolina (Dole)
Oregon (Smith)
Virginia (Gilmore)





House Projections:





Democrats: 262 (+26)


Republicans: 173 (-26)





Governor Projections:





Democrats: 28 (+1)


Republicans: 21 (-1)


Missouri goes for Nixon! The Democrat....

Good luck to all the candidates out there!