The broad sweep of Barack Obama’s victory included significant gains in some of the unlikeliest places — the nation's fastest-growing counties.
Four years after George W. Bush underscored the Republican dominance of these places by winning 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties, Obama won 15 of them in 2008 and dramatically scaled back the GOP's margin of victory in many more, according to a Politico analysis of unofficial election results in the Census Bureau’s 100 counties that grew the fastest between April 2000 and July 2007.
Obama won the three largest of these high-growth counties: Riverside County in Southern California, Las Vegas’ Clark County and the Research Triangle’s Wake County, N.C.
Obama ran ahead of Democrat John Kerry’s 2004 performance in 94 of the counties and grew the Democratic share by 8 or more percentage points in 29 of them. His improved performance over John Kerry in these high-growth places probably provided his margin of victory in at least two closely contested states: Indiana and North Carolina.
The counties on the Census Bureau list cover 31 states, and their growth rates range from 77.5 percent in Kendall County, Ill., to 27.9 percent in Burnet County, Texas. The largest is Riverside County, with an estimated population of just over 2 million; the smallest is Spencer County, Ky., outside of Louisville.
The nation’s fastest-growing counties, many of them exurbs on the outskirts of metropolitan areas, have been killing fields for Democratic candidates in recent elections. In 2000, Bush carried 91 of the 100 fastest-growing counties at the time — and in nearly half, he won by landslide margins of more than 2-to-1.
But beginning in 2005, Democrats began to show signs of life on the exurban frontier. In Virginia, Tim Kaine won six of the state’s 10 fastest-growing counties, including Loudoun and Prince William counties, both of which backed Bush twice and both of which are currently among the nation’s 100 fastest-growing counties.
“Things are different in the exurbs than they were in 2004. Think about commuting, energy costs, the economy, home foreclosures and housing values,” said Robert Lang, co-director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech University. “And there have been changes in the character of the exurbs. They were happier four years ago and slightly less diverse and slightly less tied into the cosmopolitan atmosphere of the cities.”
While the economic and political environment has changed significantly from 2004, the improved Democratic performance in counties experiencing the most explosive population growth can also be traced to the Obama campaign’s aggressive outreach efforts.
“Obama said he’d run directly at these places. Where was his last stop? Manassas,” noted Lang, referring to the county seat of Virginia’s Prince William County. Obama won the county 56 percent to 43 percent.
In Indiana, the attention may have been enough to deliver the state’s 11 electoral votes. In heavily Republican Hamilton County, which grew by 43 percent between 2000 and 2007, the Obama effort included a visit from Michelle Obama, two storefront campaign offices, a local Republicans for Obama organization and aggressive canvassing operations.
After two consecutive elections in which Bush won 74 percent, Hamilton County gave John McCain a considerably diminished 61 percent to 39 percent win.
In Hendricks County, Indiana’s only other entrant among the fastest-growing 100, the story was the same: a 74 percent Bush county where McCain managed only 61 percent. Between the two, GOP presidential margins were down more than 32,000 votes from 2004 in a state that Obama won by less than 26,000 votes.
North Carolina’s Wake County, one of the 13 fast-growing Bush counties that Obama picked off, proved even more decisive. In 2004, Bush carried Wake by 51 percent to 49 percent, with a winning margin of 7,415 votes. Four years later, Obama won 57 percent to 42 percent there, with a winning margin of 63,370 votes in a state Obama won by less than 14,000 votes.
“Democrats in general are beginning to change their tune about these areas. There’s a conscious effort to compete in these areas and not concede them,” said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress who has written extensively about the suburbs and exurbs. “Ninety percent of life is showing up, and the fact that Obama showed up in these areas made a real difference.”
Four years after George W. Bush underscored the Republican dominance of these places by winning 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties, Obama won 15 of them in 2008 and dramatically scaled back the GOP's margin of victory in many more, according to a Politico analysis of unofficial election results in the Census Bureau’s 100 counties that grew the fastest between April 2000 and July 2007.
Obama won the three largest of these high-growth counties: Riverside County in Southern California, Las Vegas’ Clark County and the Research Triangle’s Wake County, N.C.
Obama ran ahead of Democrat John Kerry’s 2004 performance in 94 of the counties and grew the Democratic share by 8 or more percentage points in 29 of them. His improved performance over John Kerry in these high-growth places probably provided his margin of victory in at least two closely contested states: Indiana and North Carolina.
The counties on the Census Bureau list cover 31 states, and their growth rates range from 77.5 percent in Kendall County, Ill., to 27.9 percent in Burnet County, Texas. The largest is Riverside County, with an estimated population of just over 2 million; the smallest is Spencer County, Ky., outside of Louisville.
The nation’s fastest-growing counties, many of them exurbs on the outskirts of metropolitan areas, have been killing fields for Democratic candidates in recent elections. In 2000, Bush carried 91 of the 100 fastest-growing counties at the time — and in nearly half, he won by landslide margins of more than 2-to-1.
But beginning in 2005, Democrats began to show signs of life on the exurban frontier. In Virginia, Tim Kaine won six of the state’s 10 fastest-growing counties, including Loudoun and Prince William counties, both of which backed Bush twice and both of which are currently among the nation’s 100 fastest-growing counties.
“Things are different in the exurbs than they were in 2004. Think about commuting, energy costs, the economy, home foreclosures and housing values,” said Robert Lang, co-director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech University. “And there have been changes in the character of the exurbs. They were happier four years ago and slightly less diverse and slightly less tied into the cosmopolitan atmosphere of the cities.”
While the economic and political environment has changed significantly from 2004, the improved Democratic performance in counties experiencing the most explosive population growth can also be traced to the Obama campaign’s aggressive outreach efforts.
“Obama said he’d run directly at these places. Where was his last stop? Manassas,” noted Lang, referring to the county seat of Virginia’s Prince William County. Obama won the county 56 percent to 43 percent.
In Indiana, the attention may have been enough to deliver the state’s 11 electoral votes. In heavily Republican Hamilton County, which grew by 43 percent between 2000 and 2007, the Obama effort included a visit from Michelle Obama, two storefront campaign offices, a local Republicans for Obama organization and aggressive canvassing operations.
After two consecutive elections in which Bush won 74 percent, Hamilton County gave John McCain a considerably diminished 61 percent to 39 percent win.
In Hendricks County, Indiana’s only other entrant among the fastest-growing 100, the story was the same: a 74 percent Bush county where McCain managed only 61 percent. Between the two, GOP presidential margins were down more than 32,000 votes from 2004 in a state that Obama won by less than 26,000 votes.
North Carolina’s Wake County, one of the 13 fast-growing Bush counties that Obama picked off, proved even more decisive. In 2004, Bush carried Wake by 51 percent to 49 percent, with a winning margin of 7,415 votes. Four years later, Obama won 57 percent to 42 percent there, with a winning margin of 63,370 votes in a state Obama won by less than 14,000 votes.
“Democrats in general are beginning to change their tune about these areas. There’s a conscious effort to compete in these areas and not concede them,” said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress who has written extensively about the suburbs and exurbs. “Ninety percent of life is showing up, and the fact that Obama showed up in these areas made a real difference.”
1 comment:
alot of teen voters help Obama to win this election, and those hispanics who voted for him.
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