By Paul Maslin
While some more mail-in ballots must still be counted on the Pacific Coast, it appears that Obama has won by approximately 6 percentage points (it may yet rise to 7), garnering just over 52 percent of the vote. And depending on the final outcome in North Carolina and the "rogue" Nebraska 2nd Congressional District, he may have won 364 electoral votes. Both the margin and the electoral count appear to be almost precisely what the average national poll result forecast and the compilation of state-by-state polls suggested as well.
Victory has 100 fathers, John Kennedy famously observed, quoting the Italian Fascist Count Ciano. But in this case I believe three contributing factors to Obama's triumph stand out.
First, the extraordinary support Obama won among young people and African-Americans. I speculated last spring in this space that these two factors alone would pretty much eliminate the Bush-Kerry margin -- I believe that to be exactly what occurred. The 18-to-29-year-old cohort supported Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (66-32), and while it is too soon to gauge precise turnout measures, their numbers clearly grew. Likewise for blacks, who responded to the history-making call of Obama with a 96 percent support level, dwarfing the margin earned by other recent Democratic nominees, and also apparently voting in higher numbers throughout most of the old Confederacy.
Second, the financial crisis. While I believe that without the collapse of Lehman Brothers and all the chaos that ensued from that September weekend Barack Obama would still have ridden the wave of change to victory, his margin was clearly enhanced by the dominant role played by the economy this fall. The Upper Midwest and Industrial Belt became a killing zone for John McCain -- as Obama carried every state between Boston and St. Louis, and apparently only narrowly missed extending that command west to Kansas City with a victory in Missouri. In my home state of Wisconsin, Obama's margin mushroomed to an extraordinary 13 points. Just look at any of the electoral maps of the Badger State and realize that all that blue was produced by nearly all-white rural counties and small towns that many thought would never support an African-American candidate.
Third, the actual performance of the two candidates. The flip side of a change candidate, particularly someone as new to the national scene as Obama, is always risk. And the McCain campaign signaled very early on that it would try to exploit its man's advantage on experience and national security matters against the untested newcomer. And yet the other axiom is that presidential debates are the province of the challenger, for they allow him (or her, though Palin didn't quite pull off her version) to pass through a credibility or acceptability threshold with the electorate -- to increase the comfort level, if you will. Obama did just that in the three debates, and it didn't hurt that for one critical period McCain seemed to come unglued, suspending his campaign, threatening to pull out of the first debate, and setting up shop in Washington to no apparent end. The supposedly risky candidate became the steady hand, and vice versa.
Here's what else we have learned from the dimensions of this victory:
1) Turnout rose, but only selectively. It may actually have dropped in California and parts of the Northeast, where the outcome was never in doubt and the candidates did not compete for votes. But there were large gains in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, South Carolina, Texas, Alabama and Georgia, obviously a product of African-American voting, but also of simple population growth. And there were also large gains in Indiana, Missouri and Nevada, all testaments to the Obama organization as well as the late media focus on the close battle in each of those states. Actually, I am willing to guess that a couple of million or so Republicans who voted in 2004 stayed home this year -- Ohio's vote actually seems to have declined.
2) The map was pretty much what I laid out last May, with two big exceptions. Obama produced the predicted Western sweep, with impressive victories in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, buoyed by young voters but also 65 percent support among Latinos. Obama won impressively in Virginia and perhaps narrowly in North Carolina, an exacta I hinted at last spring but frankly thought would be limited to just the home of Jefferson. He dominated the supposedly close swing state troika of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The surprises were the breakthrough win in Florida, and the narrow victory (as of this writing) in Indiana. The latter was an incredible feat that only those of us associated with Sen. Evan Bayh (I was his pollster in the run-up to his decision not to run) thought possible.
3) Within that map, there has been a lot of moving and shaking from 2004. Obama's national vote share will rise about 4 points from that earned by John Kerry four years ago, from 48 to 52 percent. Here are the current leaders in improved Democratic presidential vote, 2008 over 2004 (precise numbers subject to change by final vote tallies):
Hawaii +18 (this, not his margin in Illinois, was Obama's real home-state edge)
Indiana +11 (a simply stunning outcome)
Delaware +9 (the other home-state edge)
North Dakota +9
Utah +9 (Some Republicans stayed home?)
Montana +8
Vermont +8
Nebraska +8
New Mexico +8
Stop for a second. Look at the six states I've just listed (after Delaware) and realize one fundamental fact about all of them. There is no appreciable African-American population in any. These are gains that Obama registered among whites (and in the case of New Mexico, Hispanic voters), GOP turnout decline or no GOP turnout decline. And if you remember my "Northern" theory, it is not a surprise that the whites who would move toward Obama live in places with few blacks and therefore little intra-racial antagonism or perceived threat.
California +7 (may still change)
Nevada +7
And then a whole host of states with roughly 6-point Obama gains, including Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, South Dakota, Texas (!), Wisconsin, Idaho and Virginia.
The single striking regional exception is the Deep South. One can certainly speculate that there Obama's gains among white voters were either nonexistent or negligible. But again it is the marvel of the Obama ground game that it produced huge performance increases in Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and Virginia, as well as the three crucial Southwestern states -- places the campaign clearly targeted as opportunity red states from the get-go. Some of the map expansion talk was a feint, trying to draw McCain's money away from key states, but most of it was real, and it paid off handsomely.
4) He only got half the congressional loaf. As of this writing the Democrats have picked up five Senate seats for certain, and very possibly another to come in Oregon, but have fallen short of the filibuster-proof majority some hoped for, as Alaska's Ted Stevens appears headed for a narrow victory, Minnesota's Norm Coleman leads Al Franken pending a recount, and the Georgia runoff would still appear to favor Saxby Chambliss. They were thus stopped well short of a filibuster-proof majority. And the gains in the House appear to be around 20 seats, and not the more bullish 25- to 30-seat gain that many were forecasting. Is this good or bad for Obama? Some might argue he got all the responsibility of a near-landslide win without the strongest possible team to execute that responsibility. Others might claim that the limits placed on Democratic power and hubris might be a good thing, and lead to more consenus building if not outright bipartisanship that will better preserve what, after all, is still a pretty fragile majority against the turmoil undoubtedly to come.
And finally, a personal note. Twice in my life I have found myself shockingly overcome with emotion when I least expected it. Once came at the end of what I had been thinking was a good, but not great, film about baseball, the sport I love, "Field of Dreams." Kevin Costner started throwing catch with the ghost that was his father and I lost it.
Last night a victory occurred that I had expected for months. After Sept. 15, the outcome for me was never in doubt and I chided fellow Democrats for their Nervous Nelliedom or suspicions about Republican high jinks or racist backlash. "He's going to win -- and pretty big," was my constant refrain. And as a hired gun who knows some of Obama's top command, of course I had mixed feelings. In part I was envious of their incredible success. That's the nature of a highly competitive industry. Ten minutes before 10 p.m. Central, I realized what was going to happen when the next hour hit and the West Coast polls closed, and I called my wife and told her to make sure our 16-year-old daughter, who had volunteered for Obama here in Madison, was watching. And then came the announcement, and the crowd shots from Grant Park, and tears just started to flow. My country had done something so extraordinary, so unthinkable just a few years ago, so inspiring. We didn't erase the stain of slavery and racism, but we sure did bury it -- at least for a while.
While some more mail-in ballots must still be counted on the Pacific Coast, it appears that Obama has won by approximately 6 percentage points (it may yet rise to 7), garnering just over 52 percent of the vote. And depending on the final outcome in North Carolina and the "rogue" Nebraska 2nd Congressional District, he may have won 364 electoral votes. Both the margin and the electoral count appear to be almost precisely what the average national poll result forecast and the compilation of state-by-state polls suggested as well.
Victory has 100 fathers, John Kennedy famously observed, quoting the Italian Fascist Count Ciano. But in this case I believe three contributing factors to Obama's triumph stand out.
First, the extraordinary support Obama won among young people and African-Americans. I speculated last spring in this space that these two factors alone would pretty much eliminate the Bush-Kerry margin -- I believe that to be exactly what occurred. The 18-to-29-year-old cohort supported Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (66-32), and while it is too soon to gauge precise turnout measures, their numbers clearly grew. Likewise for blacks, who responded to the history-making call of Obama with a 96 percent support level, dwarfing the margin earned by other recent Democratic nominees, and also apparently voting in higher numbers throughout most of the old Confederacy.
Second, the financial crisis. While I believe that without the collapse of Lehman Brothers and all the chaos that ensued from that September weekend Barack Obama would still have ridden the wave of change to victory, his margin was clearly enhanced by the dominant role played by the economy this fall. The Upper Midwest and Industrial Belt became a killing zone for John McCain -- as Obama carried every state between Boston and St. Louis, and apparently only narrowly missed extending that command west to Kansas City with a victory in Missouri. In my home state of Wisconsin, Obama's margin mushroomed to an extraordinary 13 points. Just look at any of the electoral maps of the Badger State and realize that all that blue was produced by nearly all-white rural counties and small towns that many thought would never support an African-American candidate.
Third, the actual performance of the two candidates. The flip side of a change candidate, particularly someone as new to the national scene as Obama, is always risk. And the McCain campaign signaled very early on that it would try to exploit its man's advantage on experience and national security matters against the untested newcomer. And yet the other axiom is that presidential debates are the province of the challenger, for they allow him (or her, though Palin didn't quite pull off her version) to pass through a credibility or acceptability threshold with the electorate -- to increase the comfort level, if you will. Obama did just that in the three debates, and it didn't hurt that for one critical period McCain seemed to come unglued, suspending his campaign, threatening to pull out of the first debate, and setting up shop in Washington to no apparent end. The supposedly risky candidate became the steady hand, and vice versa.
Here's what else we have learned from the dimensions of this victory:
1) Turnout rose, but only selectively. It may actually have dropped in California and parts of the Northeast, where the outcome was never in doubt and the candidates did not compete for votes. But there were large gains in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, South Carolina, Texas, Alabama and Georgia, obviously a product of African-American voting, but also of simple population growth. And there were also large gains in Indiana, Missouri and Nevada, all testaments to the Obama organization as well as the late media focus on the close battle in each of those states. Actually, I am willing to guess that a couple of million or so Republicans who voted in 2004 stayed home this year -- Ohio's vote actually seems to have declined.
2) The map was pretty much what I laid out last May, with two big exceptions. Obama produced the predicted Western sweep, with impressive victories in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, buoyed by young voters but also 65 percent support among Latinos. Obama won impressively in Virginia and perhaps narrowly in North Carolina, an exacta I hinted at last spring but frankly thought would be limited to just the home of Jefferson. He dominated the supposedly close swing state troika of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The surprises were the breakthrough win in Florida, and the narrow victory (as of this writing) in Indiana. The latter was an incredible feat that only those of us associated with Sen. Evan Bayh (I was his pollster in the run-up to his decision not to run) thought possible.
3) Within that map, there has been a lot of moving and shaking from 2004. Obama's national vote share will rise about 4 points from that earned by John Kerry four years ago, from 48 to 52 percent. Here are the current leaders in improved Democratic presidential vote, 2008 over 2004 (precise numbers subject to change by final vote tallies):
Hawaii +18 (this, not his margin in Illinois, was Obama's real home-state edge)
Indiana +11 (a simply stunning outcome)
Delaware +9 (the other home-state edge)
North Dakota +9
Utah +9 (Some Republicans stayed home?)
Montana +8
Vermont +8
Nebraska +8
New Mexico +8
Stop for a second. Look at the six states I've just listed (after Delaware) and realize one fundamental fact about all of them. There is no appreciable African-American population in any. These are gains that Obama registered among whites (and in the case of New Mexico, Hispanic voters), GOP turnout decline or no GOP turnout decline. And if you remember my "Northern" theory, it is not a surprise that the whites who would move toward Obama live in places with few blacks and therefore little intra-racial antagonism or perceived threat.
California +7 (may still change)
Nevada +7
And then a whole host of states with roughly 6-point Obama gains, including Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, South Dakota, Texas (!), Wisconsin, Idaho and Virginia.
The single striking regional exception is the Deep South. One can certainly speculate that there Obama's gains among white voters were either nonexistent or negligible. But again it is the marvel of the Obama ground game that it produced huge performance increases in Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and Virginia, as well as the three crucial Southwestern states -- places the campaign clearly targeted as opportunity red states from the get-go. Some of the map expansion talk was a feint, trying to draw McCain's money away from key states, but most of it was real, and it paid off handsomely.
4) He only got half the congressional loaf. As of this writing the Democrats have picked up five Senate seats for certain, and very possibly another to come in Oregon, but have fallen short of the filibuster-proof majority some hoped for, as Alaska's Ted Stevens appears headed for a narrow victory, Minnesota's Norm Coleman leads Al Franken pending a recount, and the Georgia runoff would still appear to favor Saxby Chambliss. They were thus stopped well short of a filibuster-proof majority. And the gains in the House appear to be around 20 seats, and not the more bullish 25- to 30-seat gain that many were forecasting. Is this good or bad for Obama? Some might argue he got all the responsibility of a near-landslide win without the strongest possible team to execute that responsibility. Others might claim that the limits placed on Democratic power and hubris might be a good thing, and lead to more consenus building if not outright bipartisanship that will better preserve what, after all, is still a pretty fragile majority against the turmoil undoubtedly to come.
And finally, a personal note. Twice in my life I have found myself shockingly overcome with emotion when I least expected it. Once came at the end of what I had been thinking was a good, but not great, film about baseball, the sport I love, "Field of Dreams." Kevin Costner started throwing catch with the ghost that was his father and I lost it.
Last night a victory occurred that I had expected for months. After Sept. 15, the outcome for me was never in doubt and I chided fellow Democrats for their Nervous Nelliedom or suspicions about Republican high jinks or racist backlash. "He's going to win -- and pretty big," was my constant refrain. And as a hired gun who knows some of Obama's top command, of course I had mixed feelings. In part I was envious of their incredible success. That's the nature of a highly competitive industry. Ten minutes before 10 p.m. Central, I realized what was going to happen when the next hour hit and the West Coast polls closed, and I called my wife and told her to make sure our 16-year-old daughter, who had volunteered for Obama here in Madison, was watching. And then came the announcement, and the crowd shots from Grant Park, and tears just started to flow. My country had done something so extraordinary, so unthinkable just a few years ago, so inspiring. We didn't erase the stain of slavery and racism, but we sure did bury it -- at least for a while.
17 comments:
Even though Obama had the lead for weeks before actual election day, I thought the results would be a lot closer than this, and I hadn't expected the voter turn out to be so high.
Obama had a lot of things running in his favor, as well as things he had to fight against, and I believe he ran a great campaign.
I think its interesting how I man I hadn't ever heard of before a year ago is about to be the president.
Well it's offical and im not suprised. Obama had an amazingly strong campain and appealed to most of the people in need, and I am intrested to see what change is in store.
i kinda disspointed that John McCain did't win but oh well, i did't really seeing McCain winning anyways. But I think that it is cool that we finalily have an African -American President.
But i kinda think think that Barack has turned more into a celeberity insted of a poltition over this past year, but think that it is just the popularty level that Barack is on.
Barack Obama's election is a huge step forward for America. As the author said, we didnt "erase the stains of slavery and racism," we have much progress to make, but at least we are heading in the right direction. Obama's election, though it was not based on a black vs. white issues, was a major sign that race is playing less of a factor in the minds of Americans. Obama's overwhelming support in states with conservative, white dominated populations is a clear indication of what issues take priority on the minds of Americans. In a country that has struggled with prejudice and racism for years now, the election of the first black president, not for the color of his skin, but for his stance on the real issues; shows that it's citizens are truly starting to get the picture.
The sheer magnitude of Obama's victory in the electoral college shows that America is ready for change. Obama's charisma has garnered support from throughout the country. His victory, however, is also attributed to other factors such as Bush's unpopularity and the economic crisis. Obama's candidacy came at the perfect time. States like Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina have no voted Democrat for a couple of decades. Just the fact that Obama was able to win these states show a change in the mindset of the American people. His victory has brought hope for the majority of the country while the other half believes that he is a terrorist and that they should move to Canada. Whatever happens in the next four years, America can only move up.
Hey Mr P
Even though I'm not a current student at LHS i still like to take a look at this blog. I just thought that i would say that since I now go to school in Chicago, the people went CRAZY when Obama won. Heck the people on my floor went crazy. I couldn't belive it, i was so glad and proud. Then a friend and I were thinking of going to Grant park to see Obama with our own eyes. But by the time we made the decision we found out he won and knew that there was going to be all kinds of crazies out there and it would be impossible to get back home on the train. I really regret not going, but the next time he does something here in Chicago i'm so going. I'll be back home in 2weeks for a 6 week long break (gotta love quaters) maybe i'll stop by and see whats going on.
Westerner turned Blue Demon
Marisa Ybarra Class of 2008
P.S. I decided to make this comment instead of concetrating on my paper thats due tomorrow and studying for my thats tomorrow also, yay college!!
Awsome, I told you that he would win, his fellow Americans focus more on him than on McCain. But still, even though most of the nation voted him into presidency, you have to ask if someone's planing to take him out like MLK? In this nation, people still believe that a colored man is a terrible choice to run the nation. It doesnt mater that he's colored, but that he can help this nation onto its feet once more.
Marisa,
Congrats! I didn't know you were at DePaul! That is awesome!
I always loved them because they were awesome in hoops when I was a kid.
I bet Chicago is buzzing. What an awesome experience it has to be to be in that town at this time!
Hope you are doing well and thanks for checking in!
Mr. P
From the electoral votes indication, the United States is really voting for a Candidate that proposes change and lifts the common everyday people. With these promises, Obama is able to pull off exceedingly large amount of electoral votes in some states winning by a very generous margin.
Obama just beat the crap out of McCain. I can't wait to see what he has in store for the U.S. Everything just went his way. He won all the big cities and the key states. It's obvious that the American people want Obama as our president, and it's time for change.
Obama won by large numbers, it was a land slide victory. Obama had the lead for weaks. It was no surprise that he won
Well, the first time I get to vote in an election is now over. Being eighteen for this election was most definitely exciting, even though the canidate I voted for was not elected. Although I voted for McCain, Obama also has things going for him to be our president for the next four years. This is a huge step for America and proves that America, in a whole is not racist and has come a very long way since the 1950s. I am quite excited to see what the next four years has in store for us with Obama being our president.
I'm not surprised that Obama won the election. He did a lot of great things and ran a very great and very effective campaign. I think one of the reasons that he won by a pretty wide margin is that John McCain beat himself. Obama didn't really have to dig any skeletons out of the closets or do any major bashing to defeat McCain. McCain beat himself when he: chose Palin (which put doubt into everyone's minds), and said that the economy was strong during the recession, and then when he suspended his campaign. He made it pretty easy for Obama in my opinion.
This guy seems to understand pretty well most of the reasons that Obama managed to win this election, and in such a major way. The one point he failed to mention was overwhelming media support for his strong points and ignoring his lapses in judgement, while doing just the opposite to McCain. I also hope that this manages to help race relations now, rather than the setbacks that were caused during the election.
Obama clearly knew what he had to do to win, he executed on the lower and middle class, and took the "swing" states. No suprise here.
I thinks its huge that obama won by a landslide. A lot of people probly voted for him because they knew he could make a change and maybe finally begin making this world a better place. In america we have made history electing him and I think thats what a lot of people wanted.
I was really pulling for McCain myself, but after seeing polling numbers on the internet and how well he was being recieved by the general public I knew McCain would'nt be able to pull it out. Obama was just too well liked and had too much going for him. I do hope that Obama does a good job, and is able to pull us out of this economic slump that has been plaguing our nation for so long.
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