By JOEL KURTZMAN
Mexico is now in the midst of a vicious drug war. Police officers are being bribed and, especially near the United States border, gunned down. Kidnappings and extortion are common place. And, most alarming of all, a new Pentagon study concludes that Mexico is at risk of becoming a failed state. Defense planners liken the situation to that of Pakistan, where wholesale collapse of civil government is possible.
One center of the violence is Tijuana, where last year more than 600 people were killed in drug violence. Many were shot with assault rifles in the streets and left there to die. Some were killed in dance clubs in front of witnesses too scared to talk.
It may only be a matter of time before the drug war spills across the border and into the U.S. To meet that threat, Michael Chertoff, the outgoing secretary for Homeland Security, recently announced that the U.S. has a plan to "surge" civilian and possibly military law-enforcement personnel to the border should that be necessary.
The problem is that in Mexico's latest eruption of violence, it's difficult to tell the good guys from the bad. Mexico's antidrug czar, Noe Ramirez Mandujano was recently charged with accepting $450,000 from drug lords he was supposed to be hunting down. This was the second time in recent years that one of Mexico's antidrug chiefs was arrested for taking possible payoffs from drug kingpins. Suspicions that police chiefs, mayors and members of the military are also on the take are rampant.
In the past, the way Mexico dealt with corruption was with eyes wide shut. Everyone knew a large number of government officials were taking bribes, but no one did anything about it. Transparency commissioners were set up, but given no teeth.
And Mexico's drug traffickers used the lax law enforcement their bribes bought them to grow into highly organized gangs. Once organized, they have been able to fill a vacuum in underworld power created by Colombian President Álvaro Uribe's successful crackdown on his country's drug cartels.
The result is that drug traffickers are getting rich, while Mexico pays a heavy price in lost human lives and in economic activity that might otherwise bring a modicum of prosperity to the country.
In 2008, Mexico ranked 31st out of 60 countries studied in the Milken Institute/Kurtzman Group Opacity Index. The cost to ordinary Mexicans from poorly functioning institutions has been huge. My colleague, Glenn Yago, and I calculate that if Mexico were to reduce corruption and bring its legal, economic, accounting and regulatory standards up to U.S. levels (the U.S. ranks 13th and Finland ranks first), Mexico's nominal per capital GDP would increase by about $18,000 to roughly $28,000 a year. And it would also receive a lot more direct foreign investment that would create jobs.
And this impacts the U.S. Thanks to Mexico's retarded economic growth, millions of Mexicans have illegally moved to the U.S. to find work. Unless the violence can be reversed, the U.S. can anticipate that the flow across the border will continue.
To his credit, Mexico's President Felipe Calderón has deployed 45,000 members of his military and 5,000 federal police to fight drug traffickers. This suggests that he is taking the violence and the threat to civil government seriously.
But the path forward will be a difficult one. Not only must Mexico fight its drug lords, it must do so while putting its institutional house in order. That means firing government employees who are either corrupt or not willing to do the job required to root out corruption. It will also likely require putting hundreds, or even thousands, of police officers in jail.
For more than a century, Mexico and the U.S. have enjoyed friendly relations and some degree of economic integration. But if Mexico's epidemic of violence continues, that relationship could end if the U.S. is forced to surge personnel to the border.
Mr. Kurtzman, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute, is co-author of "Global Edge: Using the Opacity Index to Manage the Risk of Cross-Border Business" (Harvard Business School Press, 2007).
Mexico is now in the midst of a vicious drug war. Police officers are being bribed and, especially near the United States border, gunned down. Kidnappings and extortion are common place. And, most alarming of all, a new Pentagon study concludes that Mexico is at risk of becoming a failed state. Defense planners liken the situation to that of Pakistan, where wholesale collapse of civil government is possible.
One center of the violence is Tijuana, where last year more than 600 people were killed in drug violence. Many were shot with assault rifles in the streets and left there to die. Some were killed in dance clubs in front of witnesses too scared to talk.
It may only be a matter of time before the drug war spills across the border and into the U.S. To meet that threat, Michael Chertoff, the outgoing secretary for Homeland Security, recently announced that the U.S. has a plan to "surge" civilian and possibly military law-enforcement personnel to the border should that be necessary.
The problem is that in Mexico's latest eruption of violence, it's difficult to tell the good guys from the bad. Mexico's antidrug czar, Noe Ramirez Mandujano was recently charged with accepting $450,000 from drug lords he was supposed to be hunting down. This was the second time in recent years that one of Mexico's antidrug chiefs was arrested for taking possible payoffs from drug kingpins. Suspicions that police chiefs, mayors and members of the military are also on the take are rampant.
In the past, the way Mexico dealt with corruption was with eyes wide shut. Everyone knew a large number of government officials were taking bribes, but no one did anything about it. Transparency commissioners were set up, but given no teeth.
And Mexico's drug traffickers used the lax law enforcement their bribes bought them to grow into highly organized gangs. Once organized, they have been able to fill a vacuum in underworld power created by Colombian President Álvaro Uribe's successful crackdown on his country's drug cartels.
The result is that drug traffickers are getting rich, while Mexico pays a heavy price in lost human lives and in economic activity that might otherwise bring a modicum of prosperity to the country.
In 2008, Mexico ranked 31st out of 60 countries studied in the Milken Institute/Kurtzman Group Opacity Index. The cost to ordinary Mexicans from poorly functioning institutions has been huge. My colleague, Glenn Yago, and I calculate that if Mexico were to reduce corruption and bring its legal, economic, accounting and regulatory standards up to U.S. levels (the U.S. ranks 13th and Finland ranks first), Mexico's nominal per capital GDP would increase by about $18,000 to roughly $28,000 a year. And it would also receive a lot more direct foreign investment that would create jobs.
And this impacts the U.S. Thanks to Mexico's retarded economic growth, millions of Mexicans have illegally moved to the U.S. to find work. Unless the violence can be reversed, the U.S. can anticipate that the flow across the border will continue.
To his credit, Mexico's President Felipe Calderón has deployed 45,000 members of his military and 5,000 federal police to fight drug traffickers. This suggests that he is taking the violence and the threat to civil government seriously.
But the path forward will be a difficult one. Not only must Mexico fight its drug lords, it must do so while putting its institutional house in order. That means firing government employees who are either corrupt or not willing to do the job required to root out corruption. It will also likely require putting hundreds, or even thousands, of police officers in jail.
For more than a century, Mexico and the U.S. have enjoyed friendly relations and some degree of economic integration. But if Mexico's epidemic of violence continues, that relationship could end if the U.S. is forced to surge personnel to the border.
Mr. Kurtzman, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute, is co-author of "Global Edge: Using the Opacity Index to Manage the Risk of Cross-Border Business" (Harvard Business School Press, 2007).
So how should the U.S. respond to this in the coming years?
26 comments:
OMG!!! Honestly, I believe that it is only right for the United States to possible end the relationship with Mexico because of the fact that the citizens are unable to be trusted. As it was posted, their law enforcement can't even arrest dangerous people without being paid off by kingpins. So, it is in the best interest of American citizens that we keep our nation free from such corruption and violence. George Bush'e idea of building a fence along the Rio Grande was obviously not good way of preventing the problem because there are still many people that cross illegally. However, i believe that the United States should become more strict on the laws in which immigrants should abide by, meaning that t should become harder to obtain a citizenship by having a thorough background check.
The level of crime and corruption has always been an issue in Mexico. Their system is based on corruption and greed, at the expense of their people. This is probably not at all feasible, but I believe that the US government should oust the current government and place a board of American governors in its place. Through this governing power, we would use our power, money, and manpower to completely re-organize their infrastructure, constitution, laws, and economy; while at the same time ending the horrific reign of the drug cartels. After all of this has been accomplished, we should slowly incorporate the country into America, making a larger, more powerful nation. This would greatly solve the immigration issue. It is nearly impossible though, as they have such a destitute population and ravaged environment. Sure sounds good though.
I feel that the United States should not charge into the situation like we have so many times in the past. The government should send an emmissary who has a broad base of experience to provide advice to the leaders of Mexico. The government of Mexico must be given the option of calling on the U.S. to provide military services if it so chooses. If the situation is exacerbated, and the civil government does collapse, the U.S. should THEN send in troops. Meanwhile, troops should be sent to the border to prevent the violence from spreading to the U.S.
The U.S. should stand back and not meddle with this issue; see if Mexico can work it out themselves. However, if the violence spills over across the border the U.S should take action against it. The U.S. will certainly continue to face the problem of illegal immigration but we need to figure out another solution other than building a wall because it will not solve the problem and is a waste of revenue.
The U.S. should stand back and not meddle with this issue; see if Mexico can work it out themselves. However, if the violence spills over across the border the U.S should take action against it. The U.S. will certainly continue to face the problem of illegal immigration but we need to figure out another solution other than building a wall because it will not solve the problem and is a waste of revenue.
I think that it's time for the U.S. to step in and do something about the current situation in Mexico. The main problem is lack of communication between government officials. All the immigration from Mexico doesn't benefit The United States, nor does it benefit Mexico and people will continue to come to America until the situation in Mexico imporves. The two countries need to collaborate and come up with effective ways to stop this from continuing.
I think that the US should keep a watchful eye on the amount of violence going on in Mexico, but we should try to stay out of the fight as long as possible. If anything, we should be paying attention to the illegal immigrants crossing over because they could be involved with the drug war and just bringing the problem to the US. As if our drug problem isnt bad enough already....we dont need another countries drugs. Im hoping our drug problem in the US isnt too bad.
Wow, a lot of corruption and bad stuff is erupting in Mexico. I find all the corruption with the law enforcement over there to be a big problem with keeping the citizens of Mexico safe. The drug dealings in such will bring a lot of gangs puting people in danger. I find it unbelievable that an already poor country must waste money in order to get rid of the corruption and drug dealing. I hope the U.S. helps Mexico in some sort of fashion because the innocent citizens don't deserve to be in danger like they are. I hope they do send some law enforcment on the borders because we don't need no drug dealers or any other problems in our country right now.
~Isaac
Don't you think we learned our lesson with the war in Iraq? The United States wants to help too many people out. Once we go and try to help stop the drug trafficking over in Mexico, we will attempt to make the corrupted government safe and will be there for a long while. Although this is an issue that is traumatic, I think it is in our best interest to leave Mexico alone
Don't you think we learned our lesson with the war in Iraq? The United States wants to help too many people out. Once we go and try to help stop the drug trafficking over in Mexico, we will attempt to make the corrupted government safe and will be there for a long while. Although this is an issue that is traumatic, I think it is in our best interest to leave Mexico alone
Considering that the relationship between Mexico and the U.S. is not that great, the U.S. should take whatever action needed to end this madness. As of right now this drug war is only hitting a certain area. If we allow this to continue this war can turn into a worldwide drug war! Even though the U.S. is not in the best shape, ending this conflict over the next few years will prevent an even greater problem.
This is a situation that could be approached in various ways but I believe that the first thing the U.S. needs to do is strengthen our border. The flow of illegal drugs and weapons needs to be stopped and we need to be sure these criminals aren't getting into our country. Next, the U.S. needs to use its military power to help stop the violence. This might not come in the way of putting American soldiers in Mexico to fight but helping to train police who might need to change their mindset from a peacekeeping one to a much more aggressive one so they can go after these criminals. If necessary the U.S. might also have to intervene by installing Americans in the Mexican political system with the power to override decisions being made by corrupt politicians. The U.S. should do whatever it can to make sure our neighboring country does not fail which would in turn be very dangerous for us.
I think the U.S. should wait and see what happens in Mexico to if things will get better. The U.S. can't keep trying to fix other nations problems it only gets them into deeper trouble. Mexico will eventually find a way to reduce the coruption because even the U.S. is corrupt we just keep it hidden behind closed doors. For the time being we should leave things in Mexico alone.
This is really interesting. It goes to show how hard it is to change a people if you allow activities that threaten a government to continue unchecked. In addition since it is so close to the border it will be interesting to see how Washington's views of illegal immigration change. It is pretty easy to want to help people by providing new jobs, but if war does spread to the U.S. I doubt there will be any support for immigration from Mexico. Which is a shame because, most who immigrate to stay want jobs so they can provide for thier familys.
The thing about drug dealing is it going to continue no matter now much the government interferes. It may be on a smaller scale, or dealers may take more care to keep it out of the public eye if laws concerning drug trafficking are actually enforced, but it will never go completely away. Because of this, it would be a little bit silly for the U.S. to intervene on an issue which can never be completely eradicated. If the U.S. military/police is sent into Mexico, we are most likely setting ourselves up for an extremely long term project which will only result in failure and resentment from locals. What is going on is tragic, and I can understand how at first not offering aid could seem like you are sacrificing innocent citizens because of a lack of compassion, but at the same time, implementing ineffective policies on foreign ground isn’t exactly the way to handle the situation. If the government wants to take preventative measures on American soil along the Mexican border, that’s fine, but interfering in affairs that the Mexican government needs to work out on its own will only lead to another bad state of affairs. After all, if officials are condoning the actions of drug dealers in return for money, the American government will be fighting two different battles (corruption and illegal drug dealing), neither of which can be won.
issacpena7
Since the U.S. is trying to settle the situation of the drug lords and all the violence in Mexico, Michael Chertoff is planning what they call a "surge". All because the problem of drugs manifested its way across the border and penetrated into the U.S. Some of the drug traffikers are being what some of the people in the U.S want to be "rich." Yet, Mexico is having problems of their own because of the drug traffikers so Felipe Calderon is settling the problem. While this is going on the U.S. is giving jobs away. If the U.S. brakes up the relationship, then there will be problem and no allies from the south to help the United States.
I think the US should seek diplomacy over a troop surge in order to prevent another head on rampage towards a conflict we are not prepared to fight for or pay for. Our 7 years in Iraq and Afghanistan have proved to the US and the world the dangers of military action without a plan for victory. Although I consider myself a pacifist, it would be wrong to ignore the growing violence and corruption right outside our borders. The United States has created an image across the globe as a good Samaritan deploying personnel across the world to help end insurrections and clean up after natural disasters. It is time for the United States to turn its attention to the home front. Mexico is our neighbor and our trading partner and instability on their soil will trickle up and affect our society. If events unfold that require military action then by all means deploy troops, but I suggest we consider military action as a last resort and not a a first option.
In the past the U.S. has just barged into many situations where were do not belong. We shouldn’t go sticking our noses around unless we really know what’s going on. The U.S. should continue to monitor the border very carefully. I know that we cannot stop illegal immigration completely, but if we crack the whip more there will be more jobs available to us, Americans, instead of them being given away to someone who won’t be here much longer. As to Noe Ramirez Mandujano, what he did—accepted a large sum from the very people he is trying to stop, what a strong moral since he has. Thank goodness someone had the backbone to crack down on this, President Álvaro Uribe's, props to him.
My opinion is that maybe if the U.S and Mexico had better communication problems would be fixed more. It seems people are scared to take chances, also it would help the people that cross illegaly from getting in so much trouble. Maybe if they just came they would learn and do better here in the U.S. Sometimes we just have to take a chance on things by helping them in any way.
I think that the us should offer support to the side that we see fit. If we don't offer support to anyone then we won't see anything from mexico at all. But if we offer support to the losing side then we still lose that part of the deal.
I feel that the United States should have more border guards, we should offer the help of our drug enforcement agency to the Mexican government. This might help them solve part of the drug problem. As for the corrupt government we can't do anything about that. They are going to have to solve their problems on their own. If violence starts to erupt on our side of the border we should let the military patrol the border.
Goshness thats scary. i think that the U.S. should end their relationship with mexico because they cant even trust their law enforcement so how do we know if we can trust their government. Building a fence on the border is not going to help the illegal crossings. Our government needs to make the laws immigrants follow more strict. We should jus let Mexico try to solve the problems themselves but if the violence spills into the U.S. then we will need to take action.
Everyone knows that Mexico has had its problems, but who hasn't. I think the U.S. tries to take on too many things at once. It is not a good idea to try and end the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico, because regardless it would be another lost hope. If we can help Iraq set up a form of government I think we should be able to do the same for Mexico and like Danie said all we need to do is wait it out and see what happens.
The corruption in Mexico is a problem for the U.S. People complain about immigration in the U.S. but seriously why would anyone want to stay in such a corrupt nation. I think the U.S. should slowly go into Mexico to help rebuild. If we intervine to quickly their war is bound to come into the U.S. I think by slowly helping them rebulid their nation peacefuly, their goverment and ecomony could eventualy have the stability to offer their people a better life. This could maybe decrease the illegal immigration and better their nation.
The corruption in Mexico is a problem for the U.S. People complain about immigration in the U.S. but seriously why would anyone want to stay in such a corrupt nation. I think the U.S. should slowly go into Mexico to help rebuild. If we intervine to quickly their war is bound to come into the U.S. I think by slowly helping them rebulid their nation peacefuly, their goverment and ecomony could eventualy have the stability to offer their people a better life. This could maybe decrease the illegal immigration and better their nation.
In most cases I would say the U.S. should stay out of everyone else's business, however, with this situation so close to home, i do think it is the responsibility of the United States to intervene and HELP(not takeover), Mexico. Note: Government always contains corrupt individuals which will allow the unjust to occur therefore, identifying and removing them will be a major task. I'm not completely sure that this task is manageable. It is really quite unassuring that any major answer can be accomplished.
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