WASHINGTON—Democrats' loss in Tuesday's race for a Massachusetts Senate seat is a stark illustration of how support from independent voters has collapsed, a phenomenon that's prompting party leaders to revamp their playbook for this year's midterm elections.
Independent voters—typically centrist, white and working-class—backed President Barack Obama and the Democrats in 2008. But Massachusetts is now the third Obama-won state in the past three months where independents have swung decisively Republican.
Polls in the days leading up to the vote suggested the lead for Republican Scott Brown came about largely because of his advantage among independents over Democrat Martha Coakley.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Mr. Obama's job-approval rating among independents nationwide is 41%. That's an 11-point drop from his performance on Election Day in 2008, when he won 52% of independents, and a near-20-point decline among that group from the heights of his popularity soon after taking office.
"The independents are the fulcrum of the American electorate," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the Journal survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "Simply put, for the Democrats and Barack Obama, the arrows have been pointing down."
With Ms. Coakley's loss, a debate erupted late Tuesday among Democratic leaders and activists over how to win back independents. Liberal groups, such as union officials, demanded the party stick to its guns on core issues such as health care.
But party leaders called for shifting to a populist message talking about the economy and bashing Wall Street. Democrats plan to blame Republicans for the economy and align GOP candidates with their unpopular national leadership.
"The message needs to be on jobs, fiscal responsibility, and reminding people that if you turn back the clock, you're going to get the same policies that got us into this mess in the first place," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.), chairman of the Democrats' House campaign committee. "You can talk about health care in that context, but clearly not leading with health care."
Democratic strategists worry the numbers paint a gloomy picture in states with competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races this year, especially those where independent voters hold sway, including Colorado, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio. Those states weigh heavy on the White House because they will be battlegrounds for Mr. Obama's re-election campaign.
Massachusetts could be problematic again in November when Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick is up for re-election amid dropping approval ratings. Unexpected blue-state contests could erupt for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D., Calif.) and Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland.
Republicans in November won the Virginia and New Jersey governorships by winning independents by two-to-one margins. In those states and Massachusetts, polls showed that independents were anxious about the economy and the rising jobless rate, with health care a less important issue.
Celinda Lake, Ms. Coakley's pollster, said angry voters want someone to blame for lousy economic conditions and political infighting in Washington. "Unless we ascribe blame to someone, they're going to blame us."
The Journal poll shows independent voters aren't enamored of the GOP either, and could be lured back to the Democrats again if the economy improves. Only about one-fourth of independents feel positively toward either party, according to the survey.
In Massachusetts, Ms. Coakley's eleventh-hour efforts to adopt the populist strategy—she attacked Mr. Brown for his opposition to the Obama administration's new bank tax—didn't seem to work. Republican strategists say that the line fails to address voters' worries about joblessness and government spending.
"The voters don't want a boogeyman; they want less spending," said Nick Ayers, director of the Republican Governors Association.
Ms. Coakley's supporters credited Mr. Brown with successfully tapping into anxiety over employment and government spending.
"There are a lot of people who've lost their jobs, even some laid-off Teamsters, and they're frustrated," said Steve Sullivan, government-affairs liaison for Teamsters Local 25 in Boston.
5 comments:
It seems that since people aren't getting the "ideal" results since Obama's been in office they are starting to withdraw some support for the Democratic party.
Although it is quite obvious that Obama's approval rating has been on the down lately, it seems to me that the news is making the situation in Massachusetts a bigger ordeal than needed. Yes, the democrats lost in Massachusetts, but the news makes it seem like Obama is going to be replaced with a republican counter-part any second because of this incident. Then again, what doesn't the news sensationalize nowadays?
I dont disagree with the independent party in any way but it bothers me how easily they sway their favor back and forth. You can't just jump on the bandwagon until it starts heading downhill and then jump off whenever you want. It says 52% of independents supported Obama on election day. Well, keep supporting him. We all know he needs it. Dont give up so quickly and kick him to the curb when he doesnt perform a miracle as quickly as you'd like. He is who you elected afterall.
I believe that since the American people, especially those that are wanting to see the job rate rise, are not seeing better results they are beginning to turn their backs on the current people in power and are opting for the next option, which is Massachusetts case is Rep. Scott Brown.
Obama is starting to lose support all across the country, and his ratings have been down after he became president. People are pulling out of the Democratic party in fear. Yes he's only been in office for a year, but there are three more years to follow. Its kind of like basketball and how there are four quarters, at least give him until the third quarter to see if he's going to win the game.
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