Since John McCain announced Friday that first-term Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would be his running mate, Democrats have been quick to point out that the 44-year-old governor could soon be just “a heartbeat away from the presidency.” The veiled reference to McCain’s advanced age is hard to miss.
It’s a macabre point to raise on the night when Palin will speak to the convention here — but a look at the actuarial tables insurance companies use to evaluate customers shows that it’s not an irrelevant one. According to these statistics, there is a roughly 1 in 3 chance that a 72-year-old man will not reach the age of 80, which is how old McCain would be at the end of a second presidential term. And that doesn’t factor in individual medical history, such as McCain’s battles with potentially lethal skin cancer.
“For a man, that’s above the expected lifetime at the present,” said Michael Powers, a professor of risk management and insurance at Temple University’s Fox School of Business. The odds of a 72-year-old man living four more years, or one full White House term, are better. But for a man who has lived 72 years and 67 days (McCain’s age on Election Day this year), there is between a 14.2 and 15.1 percent chance of dying before Inauguration Day 2013, according to the Social Security Administration’s 2004 actuarial tables and the authoritative 2001 mortality statistics assembled by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
Going by the Social Security Administration’s tables, that’s nearly ten times the likelihood that a man aged 47 years and 92 days (Barack Obama’s age on Election Day this year) will die before Jan. 20, 2013. Using the NAIC tables instead, which factor in the fact that Obama has been a smoker for most of his adult life, a non-smoker McCain’s age is still six times as likely to die in the next four years as a smoker Obama’s age. Actuaries are quick to point out that mortality statistics describe broad population trends. They insist the models can’t necessarily be applied to individual people.
“Actuarial models are good for estimating the average future lifetime of, say, 100,000 50-year-olds, or how many out of 100,000 50-year-olds will survive to 60, but are lousy at estimating about one particular 50-year-old,” explained Jim Daniel, a professor of actuarial studies at the University of Texas. The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.
“Actuarial models are good for estimating the average future lifetime of, say, 100,000 50-year-olds, or how many out of 100,000 50-year-olds will survive to 60, but are lousy at estimating about one particular 50-year-old,” explained Jim Daniel, a professor of actuarial studies at the University of Texas. The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.
Jack Luff, an actuary with the Society of Actuaries, also notes that the NAIC statistics are slightly weighted toward a higher probability of death. “The [Commissioners Standard Ordinary] table is directed at life insurance and does have a margin in it with respect to extra deaths for financial reporting purposes,” said Luff. The same calculations made by utilizing an annuity table, which is used for the purposes of disbursing pensions and tends to predict slightly greater longevity, suggest that a man McCain’s age has a marginally reduced one in ten chance of not reaching age 76.
Still, the quarter-century age gap between Obama and McCain is the widest ever between major-party presidential candidates. And no matter what table is applied, the difference in average mortality rates of men McCain’s age and men Obama’s age is enormous.
According to the Social Security Administration, there is a roughly 1.6 percent chance that a man Obama’s age would die before completing one term in the White House. Even factoring in Obama’s cigarette usage, there is, on average, still only a 2.4 percent chance of death between Election Day this year and Jan. 20, 2013, according to the NAIC. And since the actuarial risks of cigarette smoking are believed to wear off over time and Obama has not suffered from lung cancer in the past, the Democrat’s long-term odds could be closer to those of a non-smoker, according to several actuaries.
Powers observed that these statistics would be incomplete without factoring in the two men’s full medical histories, adding: “McCain’s expected age of death is probably higher than Obama’s because he’s already lived to the age of 72.” But for voters, the most important question is how well the candidates are likely to fare during one or two terms in office.
With Obama and McCain, it’s not clear that factoring in outside medical information would make the comparison any more flattering to the presumptive Republican nominee. “It’s not just a matter of McCain being age 72,” said Lois Horwitz of Boston University’s department of mathematics and statistics. “It has to do with, of course, the underwriting characteristics of their lives.” Actuaries say different insurance companies might factor in McCain’s history of cancer differently, but that in any case it probably wouldn’t help the Republican candidate’s odds. “If they have a known condition they’re going to be looked at very carefully,” Luff explained. With melanoma, he said, “they’d probably look for five years with no recurrence.”
“My understanding is that with even the worst forms of skin cancer, if they’re caught early the lethality is not that great,” said Powers, who added: “The risk associated with that lesion would probably have more to do with the probability of having future lesions.”
Plus, Powers noted, serving four or eight years in the White House could wear down the presidential candidates even beyond what actuarial statistics would predict. “Probably, there is a substantial effect associated with being in an office like the presidency,” said Powers. “I think people do believe it tends to age you rather quickly.” McCain has acknowledged in the past that his advanced age would be a factor in the presidential campaign, particularly when it came to choosing a running mate.
In April, the Arizona senator told radio host Don Imus: “I’m aware of [the] enhanced importance of this issue given my age.” As early as 2007 there was speculation that McCain might pledge to serve just one term, in light of his advanced years. McCain ruled out that possibility in an Aug. 20 interview with Politico, saying simply: “I’m not considering it.” The McCain campaign has pushed back hard on any traces of ageism coming from the candidate’s critics, accusing Obama of age discrimination in May when the Illinois senator responded to a McCain statement by saying the Republican was “losing his bearings.”
During the Republican primaries, actor Chuck Norris also cited McCain’s age as a factor in his own decision to support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. “That’s why I didn’t pick John to support, because I’m just afraid the vice president will wind up taking over his job within that four-year presidency,” Norris explained in January.
Should people consider age when deciding who to vote for?
12 comments:
Sure, age is an important factor when deciding who should be the next president, but it shouldn't be the deciding factor. The voters should look beyond age to what really matters, the issues. Yes, it is a definite possibility that McCain might die in office, but that is true of any president simply because of the nature of the job.
I believe that this argument could go either way. For me personally, age is a factor when voting for our next President. I understand that age is associated with experience, but do we really want an "old" guy running the nation? He can not even remember how many houses he currently owns. By the way, why do you need more than one house? But McCain looks as if he could go on for about 10 years. If there is an older age person running for office, the public should consider the current health condition the individual is in. This includes psychiatry evaluation, physical checkup, etc. But no offense to the older generations, I believe that they should let some of the younger guys or gals run for office. But hey, if the older generations want to run for office, then by all means run!!!
Age should be considered when one is casting a vote for the next president. With old age comes wisdom, experience, deliberation, and most importantly, an ability to foresee impetuous actions; as in heedless, headlong, sudden, hasty actions. I'm not saying that based on this reason we should all vote for John McCain (I actually support Obama instead of McCain - I mean I would rather not have a 3rd George Bush.) but age should most definitely be considered. Personally I feel that McCain is too old to run for presidency. The man is 72, and shows signs of mental deterioration (at least when he makes speeches) and frankly, he could kick the bucket at any given moment.
But, To each his own.
Obviously, age is an important factor in life, period.
Now, should age be considered in voting? Absolutely.
It should not, however make up any more than a quarter of your mind when deciding your vote.
Imagine with me, if you will, that we were able to bring a president like Abe Lincoln or FDR back from the grave to run for office another time, but that they came back at the age of 75.
Now picture their opponent to be a 40 year old Nixon, or Harding, or Carter.
The more preferred and prestigious president would be the one, if you consider age to be a deciding factor, that we might as well begin digging a second grave for because there is no hope for them to win.
Whether a president is old or young doesn't have anything to do with what that person can offer to the nation.
If we could have, say, FDR or Abe back, if only for 3 years of their term, then maybe they, in that early-cut time could steer our country in the right direction. At which point, the next president would take office and continue where they left off.
There is a good and there is a bad.
Likewise, a right and a wrong.
A presidential candidate can rant and rave about whatever they want to, saying they'll accomplish this, or enforce that. Anyone can do that, regardless of age.
What we need, I think, is a person who will look at the big picture of what will happen when a decision is made, thereby taking an attempt at steering in the "right" direction.
Age is one thing, but health is another.
The presidential office takes tolls on a human that we can't even wrap our minds around.
I challenge you to look up some of the Before Office and After Office pictures of some of the presidents who dealt with some of the biggest problems this country has faced.
While cancer is a very fickle and misunderstood disease, the same can be said about smoke fumes. For all I know, the cancer could turn on McCain and kill him the day after he's put into office. Obama,however, could suffer the same fate.
Should age be considered in voting? Yes.
How much? Not very much at all.
some people being so naive think that McCain is in his 90's when he really isn't that old. Sure he may be a lot older than obama but still you don't vote for someone because of their age... you vote for the candidate that you think would be the best president. So if you don't vote for john McCain because he you think that he is as old as a dinosaur and think he could die any second then you better rethink your choise.
I think that we should be able to use our vote for who we think should be our next president but only if you are going to vote seriously not if your just doing it because you like the person it needs to be because of the facts about the person running.
I think that people should consider age when deciding who to vote for. Candidates that are older usually have more experienced and are typically more wise and intelligent than younger ones. An experienced candidate would be more likely to make smarter choices that would benefit the country. On the contrary, an older candidate may not always be the best choice in my opinion. I personally think that old age may at times wear down a person and therefore cause them to misinterpret their own judgments. Even though a younger candidate would lack some of the wisdom and experience of the older one, he or she would be able to gain more knowledge through their presidential term that would aid them in running the country. For example, if he made a mistake early in his term, he would learn from that and know not to do that again. I think that age is an important factor people should consider when deciding who to vote for, but it is only one out of a myriad of others that should also be considered when deciding on who should lead our country. The decision on who to vote for is entirely the voter's decision, but I surely think that age is an essential factor that should be considered when deciding on whom to vote for.
Definitely! People should consider age when deciding who to vote for. It shouldn't be the main priority, but it's still a point that should not be forgotten. My father turned 65 this summer, which is the age of some grandparents, not to mention some great-grandparents, but my point here is that for the past couple of years, i've noticed my dad progressively forgetting things, injuring himself, getting tired faster than than when he was 60. Old age has started to take a tole on my father. What i'm trying to say is that McCain, being 72, seven years older than my father, with skin cancer, probably has or is going through the same things my father is. Do we want a man in office that is going to be leading the country in a hospital bed? McCain is a an old guy and honestly, he probably doesn't have much time left, being that the average life expectancy for a person living in the United States is around the age of 75. Will McCain be able to keep up with the fast paced lifestyle of being president, traveling all over the world, dealing with the stress of taking care of a country, and taking care of his family? Is his immune system strong enough to protect him from diseases or illnesses when traveling to Africa or India or China, highly populated countries with known diseases? Or even worse, what if he gets DVT while on a plane traveling to one of these countries and gets a blood clot? Honestly, the condition that America is in now, we cannot take risks like this. We cannot be run by a vice president who has only been a governor for two years and who we americans have only recently heard about this past month. Talk means nothing to me, u have to prove it by action and quite frankly, i don't think McCain is going to stay alive long enough to prove that.
in my opinion age should be a factor when deciding who to vote for but is definatly not a major factor in your decision. You should (as many others have said) vote for the person with the views that you agreee with. I will have to say that if McCain did pass away while in office the thought of Sarah Palin as the president is a little frightening... McCain has experienced a lot in his life, he is a very well qualified hero and should be respected for what he did; however as far as his views and quilifications for president i am not so sure they are as deserving in praise - again all in my opinon
I knew there was a considerate age difference between Obama and McCain but I was surprised to know how much it is. Age (or "mortality" as worded here) should be a deciding factor only when its truly going to affect what occurs during the presidency. In other words, I wouldn't trust a 99 year old candidate who forgets where they're at with my parents social security,and from what I've perceived, McCain is a competent individual who's unlikely to get lost in the white house.
There are so many other factors to consider about the presidential candidates than age, who knows when one can choke on their lunch while rushing to a debate?
I believe that age should not be the deciding factor in who you vote for. McCain might die in office, but Obama faces the risk of dying in offic too if he was elected as the 1st african american president. Some also say more age means more experience and knowledge but i do not think that is completley true.
Just because McCain is in his seventies, that doesn't mean he's going to kick the bucket anytime soon. People in the U.S. live to be an average of eighty or more, so McCain still has plenty of good years left in him. If he becomes president, there is a possibility that he could die in office and there is a chance that he can stay president for a term or two before his life is over. Also Obama (though only 47) can die in office from assassination, or a heart attack, or a car accident, or any other possibility. There are equal risks for both candidates about surviving in office and just because McCain could end up being the oldest president to date, that doesn't mean his survival ability is any less than any other American citizen past his prime. We should be focused on what both candidates can offer this nation first, and worry about their health issues second.
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