A Californian geography professor has used techniques for hunting endangered species to pinpoint three houses in Pakistan where Osama bin Laden could be hiding.
Using patterns of how animal species spread, the world's most wanted terrorist can be tracked down to a town in the tribal region of North West Pakistan it is claimed.
By factoring in his need for security, electricity, high ceilings to accommodate his 6ft 4in frame and spare rooms for his bodyguards, the search can be further narrowed to three walled compounds.
According to a team led by Thomas Gillespie, at the University of California in Los Angeles, bin Laden's location is "one of the most important political questions of our time".
Mathematical models used to explain how animal species spread out say he should be close to where he was last spotted.
Their research published in MIT International Review also concluded he should also be in a large town with a similar culture to Afghanistan where he can remain largely anonymous.
The most likely candidate is in Parachinar, 12 miles inside Pakistan, which housed many mujahideen during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Finally after looking at his need for electricity for dialysis, high walls, spare rooms for his entourage, and trees to hide from prying eyes, satellite pictures show just three suitable houses.
"We believe that our work involves the first scientific approach to establishing his current location" the research concludes.
"The methods are repeatable and can be updated with new information obtained from the US intelligence community."
Kim Rossmo of Texas State University, who has worked with the military to find terrorists told USA Today: "The idea of identifying three buildings in a city of half a million especially one in a country the authors have likely never visited is somewhat overconfident."
19 comments:
These techiniques seem that they would be helpful in pin pointing the location of Bin Laden. I agree that these assumptions could be overconfident though. How does anyone know for sure that these are the living conditions that Bin Laden would require? He may be trying to cover-up where he is. I think this type of investiagtion should continue in order to make improvements in this field of study.
I think that this is incredible but it sure sounds a bit ambitious. Do we even have proof that these finding are accurate? If it is why haven’t we caught him yet? I’m sure that there is more to It than is stated in the article; it seems like there should be more to it than animal patters and building structures. On another note I believe that it is amazing that science has come to this.
I think that this is incredible but it sure sounds a bit ambitious. Do we even have proof that these finding are accurate? If it is why haven’t we caught him yet? I’m sure that there is more to It than is stated in the article; it seems like there should be more to it than animal patters and building structures. On another note I believe that it is amazing that science has come to this.
Hm, That is interesting. I will not believe this theory until Osama Bin Laden is actually caught. I do agreee that they are over confident and, how can they narrow the search to three houses when they spent years trying to find him? Wake up and smell the coffee. He could be on the move at any time. The sooner we catch him the better! Peace.
~isaac
Well, Bin Laden should definitely be considered an endangered specious, not to mention very dangerous. It is highly amusing to me that they were able to make such an amazing guess. Even if it turns out to be incorrect, the method is probably still very effective in narrowing his possible locations down.
With all the knowledge and advances in technology we have today I find myself wondering more often what we can't calculate rather than what we can.
I would be curious to know what Bin Laden thinks of our pinpointing his whereabouts via endangered species tracking methods...
It would be really great if we found Osama bin Laden.....but the evidence they have seems like it could use a little more work. It does seem a little bit irrational to think that they could pin his location down to one of three spots, but then again, you never know.
I have another problem. Don't you think that Osama bin Laden is trying to keep tabs on the U.S. military's efforts to capture him? Way to make it easy for him to know that you have a lead--post it on the internet!!!!
Good job. (Just keep it secret next time.)
This is a very interesting way to capture Bin Laden. I find this method slightly ironic and will most likley giggle if it works. =)
This definitely sounds like an episode of the TV show Numbers.
Whoever thought of this is pretty creative. It is a little far fetched and may not actually work, but it is worth a try. Has anyone checked out these houses? If no one has, someone should. If this works it could do wonders for tracking down terrorists in the future.
I think it is great that Osama Bin Laden may finally be found. I also think that it is a bit ironic that they did it in a way that is usually used in math to locate endangered animals. Osama is definitely "endanger" now!!!! But i think that it is a bit strange that i am reading about it on the internet because everything im reading right now is available to Osama also. Surely he will move if the house he is in fits these descriptions. He has probably already moved to a low ceiling one room house in a different city. Of coarse im sure that our government has a plan for this and i know that the leaders of our country have already thought of this. So i guess it is just a game of cat and mouse. (I just hope were the cat)
"We believe that our work involves the first scientific approach to establishing his current location"
Couldn't we have done this a couple years ago? I'm sure that the mathematics that their using haven't been recently discovered. (Of course i'm assuming this and you know what assuming makes you and me) Anyways, it's intriguing that Bin Laden is close to being found when practically a year ago we had no idea where he was. Something ain't right, and i hope everyone understands that there might be something afoot since we are JUST NOW FINDING BIN LADEN.
But who knows these 3 houses might not even be his hideouts, and if he's wanted that badly shouldn't we have sacked him by now?
I think this is a really neat idea that, like all the other methods used to "find" Bin Laden, will fail. While the whole endangered species idea is interesting, I don't think it can be used on people... One person, namely Bin Laden, is not an entire species. I just can't see it working the same way.
Well, if this article is publicized, there is a good chance that Bin Laden won't be in those specified spots for long (if he was actually there in the first place). It is an interesting idea to use mathematics to narrow down the possible places for Bin Laden to hide, but it still seems like there are too many scenarios to take into account. I don't have complete faith in the accurateness of the plan, but maybe there is something more to it. Really though, if you are only looking at homes with ceilings over 6'4" tall, how accurate are your results going to be? He could just bend over...
I find it hard to believe that they have "found" Osama Bin Laden. I don't necessarily think one of CIA's most wanted criminals would make finding him as easy as 2 + 2. His hiding patterns are not going to be as predictable as any random animal, and despite the fact that this woman is a geography professor, I don't have very high faith in her claims. If it was this easy, someone would have found him already. Personally, I think we should put a team of Where's Waldo experts on the case. Atleast they are used to pinpointing elusive men hiding in extremely large crowds.
Wow, who would have guessed? If somehow, this professor's theory is correct, that is absolutely amazing! Finally, America won't be so much of a joke. Bin Laden's whereabouts have been something that has been used for quite a long time for comedic purposes. Also, for security reasons, this technique will be beneficial to help ensure safety for everyone. Terrorism, in a sense, can maybe be held at bay because of this new development.
However, I agree with Rossmo in saying that it is overconfident to use the same tracking process for animals for finding the most infamously hidden man in the world at this moment. The likeliness of finding him is very, very slim.
But, I suppose, let's hope for the best?
Ok so this is just another to find him. We shouldn't should talk about all the neat creative ways to find him until one works and he is either dead or worse in a jail somewhere with a cell mate named Cletus. This method of finding him is one of the least likely to work in my opinion. Why cant we let all those Special Forces who "dont exist" go "ask some questions" or God forbid level every mountain in Afghanistan and call it even. Maybe im crazy, but I think we should stop talking about ways to find him and just find him.
I think this technique has its good qualities and its bad. This technique could find Bin Laden and end the search that has been going on for years.The bad qualities is the government or scientist doesnt even know if those are his living conditions. He could be living differant because he wants to stay hidden out.So i think this technique is good and bad!!
OK, so now Al Quaida is an endangered species. Well that's certainly good news. If only we could capture one of these elusive beings, then we could put a radio collar on it and track it to find the central population.
I think using animal tracking patterns to find Bin Laden is an absurd and overrated method. For one, humans do not behave rationally like most animals. He would try to do the thing least expected of him. I would be willing to bet that he is nowhere near any of those pinpointed houses.
The article should instead be titled "Bin Laden's Hiding spot might be narrowed down if all the calculations about his living accommodations are true." There really is no telling whether these predictions are true until they actually find him, and frankly I'm a little confused about why they have not searched these houses yet. By now he has probably found out about this article and is sure not going to wait to get caught. Also, I doubt that these calculations are entirely correct because Bin Laden will most likely try to hide in a place which no one will expect. It is great that they are using techniques to narrow his hiding spot, but I don't think it will be easy to track Bin Laden down, not even by using advanced math.
I think it is really interesting. But it will be amazing if they catch Bin Laden that way.
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